Vietnam’s trade gap forecast at $12b in 2011

Vietnam’s export turnover in 2011 is forecasted to reach some $90 billion, and import value at $102 billion. Thus, the country’s trade deficit would be $12 billion, equaling to 13.3% of the export turnover, according to Ministry of Planning and Investment (MoPI).
However, many experts from the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MoIT) said that the forecasts are not realistic.

First, crude oil exports are forecasted not to increase strongly as in July and August because Dung Quat oil refinery has resumed work from September.

Second, there will be also no export of gold (Vietnam exported gold worth over $2.5 billion in the first eight months of this year) meanwhile gold imports will increase in the coming months (to stabilize the domestic gold market).

Third, import demand for raw materials like iron and steel, building materials and fuel to prepare for productions next year will increase sharply in Q4 2011.

Another noteworthy reason is that the domestic consumption demands often increase in the late months of the year, especially consumer goods such as automobiles, electronics, cell phones, food and drinks that will increase the country’s import spending.

According to some comments from MoIT, the country’s trade deficit this year will be likely to be up to $13 billion, accounting for about 14-15% of the export turnover.

Tags: Vietnam trade, Vietnam trade 2011

Posted by VBN on Sep 6 2011. Filed under Import-Export, Import-Export turnover. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0. You can leave a response or trackback to this entry