Vietnam’s ECONOMIC SITUATION IN THE 1ST QUARTER 2005

1. Outputs of main economic aggregates

According to preliminary estimation , GDP in the 1^st quarter 2005 increases by  7.2% over last year’s same period, higher than the rate  7% of the 1^st quarter in 2003 and 2004, of which agriculture, fishery and forestry increase by 4.1%; industry and construction by 8.5%; service sector by 7%. Of the general growth rate of 7.2 %, agriculture, forestry and fishery contribute 0.6 point %; industry and construction: 3.6 point % and service sector: 3 point %.

Table 1. GDP growth rate

(At  constant 1994 prices, previous year’ same period = 100)

%

	Growth rate over previous year’ same period			Contribution to Q.I/2005 (point%)
	Q.I/2003	Q.I/2004	Q.I/2005
GDP	7,0	7,0	7,2	7,2
Agriculture, forestry & fishery	3,0	1,3	4,1	0,6
Industry & construction	9,4	9,6	8,5	3,6
Service	6,3	6,6	7,0	3,0

Agriculture, forestry and fishery increase by 4.1%, considerable growth rate over that 1.3% of the Q.I/2004, because agriculture increases rapidly, from 0.1% in Q.I/2004 to 3.9% in this  quarter  and fishery by 6.1%.

Industry and construction increase lower than that of Q.I/2004 & Q,I/2003, mainly because industry growth rate doesn’t achieve that of last  1^st quarter , crude oil output decreases, electricity production increases lower and the value of manufacturing only rises equally to last year’ same period.

Service sector increases by 7%, higher than that of Q.I/2004 and Q.I/2003, since some sectors of high proportions such as commerce, transportation, telecommunication, tourism, finance, banking and insurance still maintain a higher rate (commerce increases by 7.3%; transportation, telecommunication, tourism: 7.4%; finance, banking and insurance: 7.7%), especially hotel and restaurant sector increases 11.1%.
Total government revenue in the 1^st quarter 2005 is estimated at 25.8% of the yearly estimation, of which domestic revenue achieves 25.8%, crude oil: 28% (mainly due to high increasing in crude oil price), trade balance revenue: 24.3%.

Total government expenditure is estimated at 22.6% of the yearly estimation, of which current expenditure achieves 25%; for development investment: 21.7% (for capital construction: 22%). Significant expenditures under current spending generally achieve a good rate over the yearly estimation. Overspending is estimated at 11% of the yearly estimation, of which 85.7% is made up for by domestic loan.

2. Agriculture, forestry and fishery

The value of agriculture, forestry and fishery at constant 1994 prices is estimated at 38.7 trillion VND, increases by 5% against last year’ same period, of which agriculture achieves 29.7 trillion VND and increases by 4.9%; forestry: 1.4 trillion VND and by 0.6%; fishery: 7.6 trillion VND and by 6.5% respectively.
3. Industry

Generally, in the 1^st quarter 2005, industrial production is estimated at 101.26 trillion VND and increases by 14.4% against last year’ same period, of which state own sector:  33.5 trillion VND and by 7.9%, non-state sector: 30.3 trillion VND and  by 25.5% and foreign invested sector: 12.5% (crude oil & gas decrease by 8.3%, others increases by 19.7%).
4. Investment

Capital construction investment under the State Budget is estimated at 10,857.3 billion VND, achieves 20.9% of the yearly plan. Central investment carried out 4,773.5 billion VND, as 24% of which Ministry of transportation: 1,681.5 billion VND, equaling to 29.2% of the yearly plan.

Foreign directed investment: in the 1^st quarter 2005 there have been 109 projects licensed with a total capital registered of 1.31 billion USD, this number decreases by 9.2% against last year’ same period, but the capital is 3.1 times greater. On the average, each licensed project achieves 12 million USD, higher than the average rate of 3.5 million USD per project in last year’s same period.
5. Transportation

Passenger carriage: passengers are estimated at 238.1 million, increasing by 6.5% and nearly 11 bill. pers. km, increasing by 9% against last year’ same period.

Freight carriage is estimated at 64.2 million tons, increases by 5.2%, and 13.37 bill. tons. km, increases by 6.9% against last year’s same period.
6. Trade, price and tourism

Total retail sales of goods and services in the 1^st quarter 2005 is estimated at 104.5 trillion VND at current prices, increases by 18.5% against last year’ same period (if the raising price factor is excluded, the rate is over 9%), of which economic sectors both increase well except for the state own sector that decreases.

Consumer prices in the 1st quarter 2005 don’t change extraordinarily over last month and December 2004, similarly to what happened in 2004 and previous years: Consumer prices in March 2005 increase by 0.1% over last month’s and  by 3.7% over December 2004.

In March, gold price increases by 2% against last month’s and equaling to 98.2% of last December’s. USD price is the same as that in February and increases 0.1% over December 2004.

Export turnover is estimated at 6.72 billion USD, increases by 16.2% against last year’ same period. Export turnover excluding crude oil is estimated to achieve 5.14 billion USD and increases by 12.5%, of which domestic economic sector: 2.95 billion USD and increase by 9%, foreign invested economic sector: increase 17.6%. Of the general export growth rate, exported crude oil contributes 39.1%, domestic economic sector: 25.8% and foreign invested economic sector (excluding crude oil): 35.1%.

Import value is estimated at 7.85 billion USD, increases by 18.5% against last year’ same period; domestic economic sector imports over 5.15 billion USD, increases by 19.5%; foreign invested economic sector by 16.8%.

Tags: Vietnam economic 2005, Vietnam economic statistics, Vietnam's economy situation