Vietnam’s economic situation in june and the first half of 2007

1. Major economic indicators

According to preliminary estimate, Gross domestic products (GDP) in 1^st half of 2007, were estimated at constant prices increasing by 7.87% against same period of 2006; of which the first quarter by 7.69% and the 2^nd quarter by 8%. The agriculture, forestry and fishery sector increased by 2.67%, the industry and construction by 9.88% and the service by 8.41%. For 7.87% GDP, the industry and construction shared by 3.94 points percents; the service shared by 3.4 points percents; the agriculture, forestry and fishery contributed 0.53 points percents.

In the 1^st half of 2007, the agriculture, forestry and fishery had the low growth rate, mainly due to the decreasing yield of winter-spring rice of 3% over last winter-spring crop. The winter-spring rice had high proportion of value added agriculture of 6 months; therefore, this sector’s growth fell by 1-point percent against same period last year, even though fishery rose by 9.31%. The industry and construction increased higher than the rate of same period last year because of high growth of manufacturing and stable growth of electricity, gas and water supply. The service had much higher growth than the rate of the recent years, of which all service activities maintained high growth or higher than the rate of last year.

2. Government revenues and expenditures

Total government revenues in the first half of 2007 were estimated increasing by 14.5% against same period last year and achieved 46.1% of the year estimate. Of which domestic revenues increased by 24.9% and gained 48.6%; trade budget revenues: 27.1% and 48.7%; aid revenues: 16.2% and 50.3% respectively. Crude oil revenues fell by 13.4% and achieved 38.6% mainly due to the decrease of crude oil extraction and export.

Total government expenditure in the 1^st half was estimated increasing by 18.7% against same period last year and achieving 45.8% of yearly estimate, of which spending for investment and development was 19.6% and gaining 42.5%, debt and aid settlement was 47.1%, current expenditure  rose by 9.4% and gained 50.2%. The state budget deficit accounted for 46.8% the year-estimated deficit, of which 71.7% made up with the domestic loans and 28.3% made up with the oversea loans.

3. Agriculture, forestry and fishery

Output values of this sector in the 1^st half of 2007 were estimated at constant 1994 prices, increasing by 3.5% against same period last year; of which agriculture rose by 2%; forestry by 1.2%; fishery by 9.7%.

The yield of winter-spring paddy was estimated achieving 17.1 million tons, decreasing by 531.3 thousand tons against same period last year. Of which the Northern provinces gained 6.2 million tons, falling by 597.5 thousand tons because the rice-cultivated areas fell by 0.6% and productivity fell by 8.2%. The Southern provinces achieved 10.9 million tons, increasing by 66.2 thousand tons, mainly due to the increase of productivity of 40kg/ha. The yield of other crops increased over same period last year.

Livestock feeding: According to the livestock feeding survey result of 1/4/2007, total pig heads in the country were 98.6% over same period last year, decreasing by 384 thousand, mainly due to the decrease 1.6% of pigs for food. Buffalo heads fell by nearly 2% because of decreasing buffalo for draught. The herd of cattle rose by over 5%, mainly in mountainous provinces and South Central Coast where there were plentiful grass. Poultries were recovered but the growth was slow, increasing by fewer than 4%. The yield of liveweight of all kinds rose by over 4%, of which cattle by 6%; pigs by 4%.

Plague and disease: As of today, there discovered poultries plague relapsing in 67 communes of 18 provinces/cities  and foot-and-mouth disease not more than 21 days happening in 8 communes under 2 districts of Quang Tri. As of 21/6/2007, 63 provinces/cities have been vaccinating for poultries in the first phase of 2007, of which 44 provinces basically completed. There had 146.6 million poultries vaccinated.

Forestry: Forestry in the first half of 2007 achieved well against same period last year. The area of concentrated forestation was estimated to achieve 97.8 thousand ha, increasing by 0.3%; the areas of separated forestation gained 110.4 million trees, rising by 0.2%. Wood cut production was 1,387.5 thousand m³, rising by 2.9%. The dry weather lasted long in Northern provinces, even though forestation protection work was strengthened, there still happened many forestation fires. The areas of destroyed forest were 4,310.1 ha, increasing by 54.9% over same period last year, of which the areas of fired forestation were 3,704.4 ha.

Fishery:

Total fishery production in the 1^st half of 2007 was estimated achieving 1,849.5 thousand tons, increasing by 9% over same period last year, of which farmed production rose by 19.2% and the caught aquatic production rose by 2.6%.

The farmed fishery production grew rapidly due to the increasing price of trafish and basa fish that encouraged the farmers to raise the areas of farming.

The caught aquatic production was estimated gaining 1,076.9 thousand tons, of which sea caught products achieved 989.4 thousand tons, rising by 3%. The caught aquatic products achieved relatively well due to the favorable weather, some kinds of fish appeared in many days in the Central and Southern Sea.

4. Industrial output

Generally for 6 months, industrial output value was estimated at constant prices increasing by 16.9% against same period last year, of which state owned sector increased by 8.5%, non-state sector increased by 20.5% and FDI sector by 19.3% (oil and gas decreased by 4%, other items rose by 24.3%).

Among one digit manufacturing industry, output value of processing industry had high proportion, increasing by 18.8% that contributed an important part to increase industrial output value. Mining and quarrying industry increased only 1.5% because crude oil fell by 7.4% and pure coal rose by 12.4%; electricity, gas and water production and supply rose by 11.5% (of which electricity rose by 11.6%).

Some products under processing industry had higher growth rates than the general growth such as rolled steel, insecticides, tiles, machine tools, electric motors, transformers, assembled automobile, assembled motorbike. However, some main products, which were important to economy as well as export, had lower growth than the general rate or decreased over same period last year.

5. Investment

Realized investment for development in 1^st half of 2007 at current prices was estimated achieving 196.8 trillion VND, equaling 43.5% of the yearly plan. Of the total investment, state investment was 92.1 trillion VND, equaling 40.4% of the yearly plan; non-state investment 69.5 trillion VND, equaling 46%; FDI investment 35.2 trillion VND, equaling 48.2%.

Capital construction investment under the concentrated State budget was estimated to gain 41.8 trillion VND and account for 43.8% of the yearly plan. Of which central investment was 15.1 trillion VND, equaling 42.7% of the yearly plan, local investment was 26.7 trillion VND, equaling 44.4% of the yearly plan.

Foreign direct investment: from 1^st January to 22/6/2007, there had been 484 projects licensed with a total capital registered 3.93 billion USD. If 869.9 million USD adding for 199 projects licensed in the previous years, the total capital registered was 4.8 billion USD. Out of newly licensed projects, the industry and construction sector accounted for 57%; the service sector 40.9%; the agriculture, forestry and fishery 2.1% of total capital registered.

6. Trade, price and tourism

Total retail sales of goods and services in 1^st half were at current prices estimated at 335.6 trillion VND; increasing by 22.9% over same period last year, of which all economic sectors rose by over 25%, but state sector decreased by 7.7%. By business activity, the trade had the highest proportion of nearly 82% of the total, increasing by 22.6%; hotel and restaurant accounted for 11.8%, rising by 21.7%; tourism accounting for 1.2%, rising by 38.6%, service accounting for 5.1%, rising by 28.4%.

Consumer prices in June 2007 increased by 0.9% against last month, 5.2% over December of 2006 and 7.8% against same period last year. Consumer prices increased because the prices of all commodity groups both rose at different levels. As compared with the first half of last year, average consumer price rose by 7%, lower than the average increase of 8.6% for first half of 2005 and 7.9% for 6 beginning months of 2006 and lower than the general growth rate of the economy.

Gold price changed unstably, on average gold price for 6 months increased by 11.9% against same period last year, of which gold price in June 2007 fell by 2% over last month but rose by 5% over December of 2006 and by 2.8% over same period last year. USD price in 6 months has trended to slightly raise since April 2007 and in almost months USD prices increased over same period last year. On average, USD price per month rose by 0.5%. USD price in June 2007 increased by 0.3% over last month, by 0.1% over last December and by 0.5% over same period last year.

Total trade turnovers in 1st half 2007 were estimated at 49.69 billion USD, raising by 25.2% against same period last year, of which exports grew by 19.4% and imports by 30.4%. As import rates were much higher than export rates, trade deficits gained USD 4.78 billion, 2.8 billion USD higher than the amount of 1.98 billion USD for 6 early months of 2006 and equaling 21.3% of export turnovers, twice as much as the rate of 10.6% of the first half of 2006.

Export turnovers was estimated at 22.5 billion USD, of which domestic sector gained 9.8 billion USD, rising by 24.7%; FDI sector (excluding crude oil) was 8.9 billion USD, increasing by 31.4%. Main export markets in 5 months increased differently. Of which, ASEAN market rose by 29.8%, EU by 28.4%, America by 23%, China by fewer than 5% but Japan and Australia markets fell by 0.4% and 11% respectively.

Generally, export commodities in first half increased over same period last year, of which many main export commodities (export value was about more than 1 billion USD) maintained the high growth. Crude oil export value decreased because export volume fell by 6.7, price fell by 3.6% and gaining only 43.9% of the 2007-year plan. Rice export gained 731 million USD, decreasing by 5.6%, mainly due to the decrease volume of 18.9%, achieving only 2.3 million tons. Rubber achieved 527 million USD, rising by 1.6% (export volume falling by 3.5%). Cashew nuts was 255 million USD, rising by 16.3% (export volume growing by 14.3%).

Import turnovers in 1^st half was estimated at 27.2 billion USD, of which the domestic sector gained 17.3 billion USD, rising by 30.2%; the FDI sector was 9.9 billion USD, growing by 30.7%. Importing machines, equipments, tools, spare parts and important raw materials for domestic production grew rapidly over same period last year.

Service trade turnovers in first half of 2007 were estimated at 6.2 billion USD, rising by 20.8%, of which service export gained nearly 3 billion USD, rising by 17.2% and service import was 3.2 billion USD, growing by 24.4%. Generally, export value of all services increased over same period last year. Import value of service grew higher than export value because carriage fee and imported commodity insurrance rose by 31.6%, financial service rose by 23.1% and insurrance service by 16.9%.

Passengers carriage in 1^st half 2007 was estimated at 749.9 million and 32.6 billion passengers-kilometers, increasing by 8.3% in passengers and 10.1% in passengers-kilometers against same period last year. Passengers carriage by almost transport types both increased in passengers-kilometers, of which passengere carriage by land, by railway and airway had a higher growth than the general rate.

Volume of cargos carried 1^st half 2007 was estimated at 181.6 million tons and 45.2 billion tons-kilometers, increasing by 7.6% in tons and 7% in tons-kilometers against same period last year. Cargo carriage by almost transport types increased well in tons and tons-kilometers but cargo carriage by railway fell by 2.4% in tons; by airway decreasing both in tons and tons-kilometers.

International arrivals to Vietnam in 1^st half of 2007 were estimated at 2.11 million, increasing by 14.7% against same period last year. Of which arrivals for tourism and relaxing were 1.33 million, rising by 24%, for busines: 307.7 thousand, increasing by 10.6%; for visiting relatives: 308.8 thousand, by 9.7%, for other purposes reducing by 19.4%.

The Post and Telecommunication: Telecommunicating activities inside and outside the country continued developing stably. The number of new telephone subscribers in 1^st half was estimated achieving 8.9 million. Therefore, as of end of June, there have been 36.4 million telephone subscribers in the country. Viet Nam was assessed to be the country with high growth of telecommunication in the region.

Tags: Vietnam economic 2007, Vietnam economic statistics, Vietnam's economy situation