Vietnam’s economic situation in june and the first half of 2005

1. Main economic indicators

GDP for the first half of 2005 are estimated increasing by 7.63% over same period last year, of which GDP in 1^st quarter increased by 7.31% (higher than the estimated rate of 7.23% in the end of March 2005) and in 2^nd quarter by 7.87%. The growth rate for the first half of this year is much higher than those in same period of previous years (2001: 7.1%; 2002: 6.5%; 2003: 7.0%, and 2004: 7.1%).

The sector of agriculture, forestry and fishery increases by 4.23%; industry and construction by 9.5%, and the service by 7.6%. Of 7.63 points percent growth rate, the industry and construction contributed 3.68 points percent, the service 3.07 points percent and the agriculture, forestry and fishery 0.88 points percent.

The sector of agriculture, forestry and fishery grows by 4.23% for six momths, which is higher than its increased rate in the same period last year mainly due to the increase of 3.9% and 7.5% in agriculture and fishery respectively. The industry and construction sector increases by 9.5% mainly due to an increase of 11.42% in the manufacturing industry. The service sector increases by 7.6% of which activities with high proportions achieve high growth rates such as trade:  7.6%, transport, communication, tourism: 7.7% (last year’ same period:7.3%), financing, banking, insuring activities: 8.5% (last year’ same period: 7.5%), especially hotel & restaurent : 15% (last year’ same period: 5.9%).

Total state budget revenues for the six months are estimated achieving 53.8% of the whole year’s plan, of which revenues from home are 52.1%, from crude oil: 64%, from trade balance: 48.5%. Total state budget expenditures are estimated achieving 48.8% of the year’s estimation; current expenditures gain 50.7% but spending for investment development only reaches to 45% (capital construction gains 44.5%). Over-spending for the six months is estimated at 33.2% of the year’s estimated level.

2. Output of agriculture, forestry and fishery

The output value of agriculture, forestry and fishery for the first half of 2005 is estimated increasing by 5% at 1994 constant prices against last year’ same period, of which agriculture grows by 4.5%, forestry by 0.6% and fishery by 8.2%.

Agriculture:

The production of winter-spring cereal crops this year is estimated at 19.1 million tons, increasing 295,000 tons (+1.6%) against same crops last year, of which rice paddy increases by 1.3%, maize by 4.5%. The output of winter-spring rice crops is estimated at 17.3 million tons, increasing 219,000 tons as of an increase of 150 kg/ha (+2.5%) in the productivity, which made up for decreased areas as of drought in some regions (the South-East decreased by 22.5%, Central Highlands by 11%, coastal South Center by 2.9%). Winter-spring maize crop production gains 1.79 million tons, increasing 77,000 tons (+4.5%) mainly due to an increase of 26.2 thousand hectares (+5.4%) in cultivated areas, of which the North increased by 6.1%. There is a considerable increase in production of annual industrial plants, vegetables and beans: soya by 34.9%, groundnut by 2.9% and vegetables by 6.3%.

Animal breeding is tending to developrapidly as of increased demands for food after the bird flu plague. According to 1/4/2005 animal breeding survey, the whole country had 26 million pigs, increasing by 4.9% over same period last year; pork live-weight increased by 7%; poultry livestocks were recovered and increased by 8% over same period last year, especially in small-scale breeding households.

Forestry

The forestation progress in six months of 2005 is slower than same period last year, planted areas are 99.6%. Cutting wood outputs (including wood for paper material) increase by 0.9% over same period last year, 69% of which come from planted forests. The care and protection of forests have been paid attention to but the outcomes were not satisfied. Drought lasted long, the forest management force was thin…this resulted in 4,546 ha of forests destroyed, of which 4,005 ha were burnt, increasing by 15.5% over same period last year (Kon Tum: 1,048 ha; Dien Bien: 766 ha; Yen Bai: 370 ha).

Fishery

The fishing activity in six months increases rather well as compared with same period last year: outputs are estimated at 1,542 thousand tons, increasing by 7.7%: farmed products 536.7 thousand tons and 17.6%, caught products 1,005.3 thousand tons and 3.1%, chiefly sea caught products 920,000 tons and 3.9% respectively.        Aquaculture outputs increase as of rising prices since beginning of the year that has encouraged farmers to expand their areas for aquaculture. Aquaculture areas increase by 4.4%: areas for raising shimp 2.6%; for rasing fish 1.6%. Favourable weather helps increase fish caught outputs, especially sea caugth products.

3. Industrial output

Industrial production value in June 2005 increases by 17.8% against last year’ same period, of which state-owned enterprises increase by 9.6%, the non-state sector by 24.9%, and the foreign invested sector by 19.4%. The increase of production of some main products like pure coal, processed sea-food, cement, rolled steel, machin tools, electric motors; automobiles…have contributed to the general increased rate. Electricity production has been more stable as of the improved line of water in the lake of Hoa Binh Hydro-electric Plant and Government solutions of generating and providing electricity.

Generally for 1^st half of 2005 the industrial output value increases by 15.6 over same period last year, of which the state sector increases by 9.7% (central management by 13.6%, local management by 1.5%); the non-state sector by 24.7%; the foreign invested sector by 13.9% (oil and gas decrease by 10.4%, others increase by 22.8%). The increased rate in the stae sector is lower, especially local industry that increases by only 1.5 % as of the process of rearrangement of organisation and privatisation.

Of the three one digit industrial branches, the manufacturing accounts for about 84% of the total industrial output value, increasing by 16.9% over same period last year; the mining accounts for 10% of the total value and increases by 6.6% only, electricy, gas and water account for 6% of the total value and increase by 14%.

High increases rates of important products have contributed to the general increased rate of the industry for the past six months: pure coal output increased by 23.1% as of increased coal exportation in both quantity and prices right in beginning months of the year and home growing demands for generating electricity; the electricity increased by 14.8%, although the electricity faced many difficulties in production and the rapid increase of additional charge it still mobilised all resources to provide power to production and life; processed sea-food increased by 18.8%, fertilizer by 55.3%, rolled steel by 19.5%, cement by 15.3%, sanitary earthen wares by 27.7%, machine tools by 39.3%, electric motors by 21%, assembled automobiles by 41.7%…

Besides products with high increased rates, crude oil output in the six months decreases by 12.2%; some exported items, due to market problems have lower incresed rates than last year’ same period such as textiles, footwears, bicycles,…and other items like sugar, assembled television sets…

Some provinces with large scale industry have higher increased rates like Ha Noi, Hai Phong, Vinh Phuc, Quang Ninh, Da Nang, Binh Duong, Dong Nai…HCM City privately which accounts for ¼ of the country’ total industrial output value increases by 12.7%, and Ba Ria-Vung Tau by 10.9% only.

4. Investment and construction

Capital construction investment for 1^st half of 2005 at current prices is estimated at 139.4 trillion VND, accounting for 46.5%% of the year plan and increasing by 19.2% over same period last year. Of the total, State capital accounts for 52.8%, equaling 43% of the year plan and increasing by 19.1%; non-state capital: 28.9%, 48.3% and 27.3%; FDI: 17.4%, 56.5% and 7.9% respectively.

Capital costruction investment under state centralised budget achieves 25.3 thousand billion VND, equaling 48.7% of the year plan, of which capital under central management is 10.3 thousand billion VND, equalling 51.6% of the year plan. Capital under local management is 15,000 billion VND, accounting for 59.4% of the total and equaling 46.9% of the year plan.

FDI: from beginning of the year to end of 20/6/2005 there were 323 newly licence-granted projects with total registered fund of 1867.6 million USD, nearly 5.8 million USD per each project  on average (last year’ same period: 2.9 million USD per project).

5. Trade, price and tourism

Total retail sales of goods and services in the 6 months is estimated at 216.7 trillion VND at current prices, increasing by 18.9% against last year’ same period (if the raising price factor is excluded, the rate is over 9%). All economic sectors (except for the state sector) have high growth rates. Considering from business industries, the trade accounts for 79.9% of the total and increases by 16.7%, hotels and restaurents: 13.4% and 30%, services: 6% and 28.3% respectively.

Consumer prices raise month-to-month from beginning of the year, however, the rate is a bit lower than that of last year’ same period and different from month to month (highest month: +2.5%, lowest month: +0.1%). The consumer prices of June in comparison of December last year increase by 5.2%. Notably, prices of all groups increase also.

Gold prices in the six months tend to fall. Gold prices slightly decrease month-to-month (except for March which prices raised by 2%), so gold prices in June only equal 95.6% of December last year. However, the prices in beginning months of the year were at high rates as compared with same period last year, increasing by 6.4% on average.

USD prices are rather stable in the six months. Prices month-to-month are almost unchanged or slightly increase 0.1% only. USD prices in beginning months are slightly increase from 0-0.3% only.

Total circulation of foreign trade in the six month is estimated at 32.44 billion USD, increasing by 19.9% against same period last year, of which exports increase by 17.4%, imports by 22%. Trade deficits for the six months are 3.5 billion USD, equal 24.7% export value.

Export turnovers of the six months are 14.44 billion USD, nearly 2.4 billion USD per month, which are higher than the average of 2.05 billion USD of last year’ same period. Export turnovers excluding crude oil are 11.07 billion USD, increasing by 13.1%, of which domestic sector gains 6.26 billion USD, increasing by 9.8% over last year’ same period, FDI sector: 4.8 billion USD and by 17.8%.

Export turnovers of such main items as crude oil, coal, electronic products, computers, electric cables, plastic products, rice, fruits and vegetables, cashew nuts, wood products all increase more than 30%. Notably, 4 exported iems having turnovers of more than one billion USD are crude oil, textiles, footwears and seafood. Turnovers of crude oil increase by 34.1% mainly due to high prices while its exported quantity decreases; textiles increase by 0.1% only; footwears 2.8% and seafood 9.3%. Low increased rates of these items are due to market problems. Additionally, turnovers of some other items also decrease: coffee decreases 7.8%, pepper -14.2%, tea -19.6%, bicycles and spare-parts -18.7%, animal fats & vegetable oils -65%, children toys -23.6%. Quantity of main exported agricultural products (excluding rice and groundnut) is lower than that of same period last year.

According to the statistical data of the first 5 months, some markets have pretty high growth rates such as American market that occupies 16.8% of total turnovers, increasing by 13.2% over last year’ same period, Japanese market that occupies 14%, increasing by 37.5%; ASEAN: 13.7%, by 46.4% respectively; Australia increases by 73.7%… Only exports to EU market occupy 13.8%, decreasing by 8%, of which mainly in textile products and footwears because there is a hard competition with goods from China, Pakistan, Baladesh and India…

Import turnovers in 6 months are 18 billion USD, increasing by 22% against last year’same period, of which domestic sector increases by 22.5%; foreign invested sector by 21.2%. Import turnovers of almost important commodities for domestic production and consumption both increase well against last year’same period: petroleum increases by 36.2%; steel by 30.6%; plastic by 30.6%; chemicals by 36.4%; chemical products by 22.4%; papers by 60.6%; wood and wood materials by 32.6%; machinery and equipments by 14%. However import prices of some items such as petroleum, steel, fertilizers and plastic both increase highly against last year’same period that make import turnovers increase considerably, meanwhile their imported quantity increases slowly or even decreases:  the quantity of imported petroluem rises only 2.3%; steel by 7.3%; plastic decreases by 3.7%; turnover of steel, fertilizer, auxiliary material for textile, sewing; cotton and vegetable and animal oils and fats decreases.

Passenger carriage: passengers are estimated increasing by 4.7% in persons and 11.2% in passengers-kms, of which the respective numbers of passenger carried by train are 8% and 11.6%, by plane: 23.4% and 26.4%, inland: 5.4% and 7.4%.

Freight carriage is estimated increasing by 5.9% in tons, and 7.9% in tons-kms, of which freight carriage by train increases by 3.5% and 2% respectively, by maritime transport: 9.5% and 9.2%, inland: 5.8% and 3.6%, by inland waterway: 5% and 4.7% respectively.

International visitors to Viet Nam there are 1.72 million arrivals in the first 6 months 2005, increasing by 23.7% over last year’ same period, of which tourists increase by 40.4%; guests for visiting relatives and friends by 12.1%. Visitors from China People Republic increase by 5.7%, from America by 19.4%, from South Korea by 60.3%, from Taiwan by 11.9%, from Japan by 21.6%, from Australia by 17%…

GSO

Tags: Vietnam economic 2005, Vietnam economic statistics, Vietnam's economy situation