Vietnam’s economic situation for the first quarter of 2006

1. General economic aggregates

Gross domestic products (GDP) 1^st Quarter in 2006 was estimated increasing by 7.2% against last year’s same period, lower than the rate 7.3% of 1^st Quarter in 2005, of which the agriculture, forestry and fishery increased by 2.1%, considerably lower than the rate 4.3% of last year; the industry and construction by 8.7%; the service by 7.4%. Of 7.2% GDP, the agriculture, forestry and fishery contributed 0.3 points percent, the industry and construction 3.7 points percent; the service 3.2 points percent.

High growth and highly increasing crude oil price in international market have played an active role in rising government revenues. Total government revenues in 1^st quarter were 23.5% of yearly estimate, of which domestic revenues accounted for 23%; crude oil 24.8%; trade balance revenues 23%.

Total government expenditure in 1^st quarter 2006 was  at 22.1% of yearly estimate, of which current expenditures were 23.9%; spending on development investment was 20.8%.

2. Agriculture, forestry and fishery

Natural calamities like long – lasted drought in the North, floods in the North Centre and Mekong River Delta and growing insects in the South affected the agriculture production. Output values of agriculture, forestry and fishery in 1^st quarter 2006 at 1994 constant prices were estimated increasing by 2.4% against last year’s same period; of which agriculture rose by 1.04%; forestry 0.2%; fishery 7.93%.

Winter spring rice crops area as at 15/3/2006 was 2,946.5 thousand ha, equaling 102.1% against last year’s same period. Winter spring rice harvesting in the South achieved 934.8 thousand ha, equaling 76.9% over last year’s same period. According to preliminary report, the productivity of the whole area was lower than last year, the production was estimated at 8.8 million tons, decreasing by 182 thousand tons. Growing crops achieved highly over last year: maize area increased by 4.1%; soy-bean by 9.4%…

Animal feeding in 1^st quarter 2006 developed well, the herds of castle were estimated increasing by 7%; pigs by 5%, the quality of the meat was lean; poultry by 1 – 2%, bird flu has been constrained in the whole country after 3 months since the outbreak, poultry products like meat and egg were circulated in the market. The households started feeding poultry so that the demand of breeding animal increased highly. Nowadays, the 1^st vaccinations for poultry in localities was launched actively.

Fishery production in 1^st quarter 2006 estimated at 828 thousand tons, increasing by 6.3% against last year’s same period; of which fish increased by 6.4%; shrimp by 10.7%. Caught aquatic product achieved 543.5 thousand tons, increased by 3.1%, of which caught sea product: 496.4 thousand tons, by 3.5%.

3. Industrial output

Industrial output value in 1^st quarter 2006 at 1994 constant prices estimated at 118.2 trillion VND, increasing by 14.7% against last year’s same period. Of which state owned enterprises increased by 6.9% (central government managed enterprises increased by 9.9% meanwhile local government managed enterprises decreased by 0.2%), non-state sector by 20.4% and FDI sector by 16.3% (oil and gas fell by 2.2%, others rose by 21.3%).

Among industries, the mining and quarrying increased by 2.6% versus same period last year, production and supply of electricity, gas and water by 12.5% (generated power lonely by 12%); the manufacturing by 16%. Among main items of the manufacturing, textile products increased more highly than same quarter last year: silk by 27.9%, knitting garments by 19.6%, ready-made clothing by 27.4% mainly due to rapid rising in exports. However, some items rose slowly and decreased over 1^st quarter 2005: processed seafood rose by 11.1%; paper and paper boards by 5.6%; cement by 9%; rolled steel by 5.5% and other mechanical products (excepting for electricity rotating engine), assembled television sets; assembled automobiles; assembled motorbikes; bicycles decreased over 1^st 2005.

4. Investment

Investment in 1^st quarter 2006 at current prices achieved 64.1 trillion VND, accounting for 17% of yearly plan and increasing by 19.8% over same period last year. Of the total investment, state investment occupied 32.9 trillion VND, increasing by 19%; non-state investment 18 trillion VND, increasing by 20%; FDI  13.2 trillion VND, rising by 21.3%.

Capital construction investment under the concentrated State budget in 1^st quarter 2006 was estimated at 11.85 trillion VND, accounting for 21.1% of the yearly plan; of which central investment gained 3,650 billion VND, accounting for 21% of the yearly plan; local investment gained 8,200 billion VND, accounting for 21.2% of the yearly plan.

Foreign direct investment: in 1^st quarter 2006, there have been 215 newly granted license projects with a total capital registered 1,625.2 million USD, on average a new project licensed achieved 7.6 million USD. For 3 months there have been 68 finance-added projects with amount of 426 million USD, this makes total amount of capital be 2.05 billion USD. Among these, industrial and construction sector occupied 76.7% of the total projects and 75.5% of total registered capital; the service: 44 projects and 392.6 million USD; the agriculture, forestry and fishery: 6 projects and 5.3 million USD.

5. Trade, price and tourism

Total retail sales of goods and services in 1^st quarter 2006 at current prices were estimated increasing by 19.3% over same period last year, if the price booming factor was excluded this rate was over 10%. As compared with same period last year, the changes in all economic sectors tend to be more flat: state sector raised 7.3% (last year this sector decreased); other sectors increased 20-25%. In business sector, the trade, hotel and restaurant took a great proportion, increasing approximately to the general rate while the traveling and service that took a smaller proportion raised 27-30%.

Consumer prices in March 2006 decreased by 0.5% against last month, so that they only raised 2.8% over December 2005 and nearly one point percent lower than the rate 3.7% of March 2005 over December 2004. The falling was mainly due to decrease in demand while the supply was plentiful. March’s consumer prices fluctuated in a same circle as previous years: February was higher than January and March was slower than February.

As compared with same period last year, consumer prices of each month in 1^st quarter had a positive tendency of gradual decrease over months: January prices increased by 8.8%; February by 8.4% and March by 7.7%. However, average prices for 12 months as at March 2005 still rose considerably; the rate of 8.1% was a worrisome for the aim of keeping the inflation rate from being lower than the growth rate.

Gold prices in March 2006 only raised 1.8% over last month, rose by 11.6% against last December and by 26.7% over March 2005. USD prices in 1^st quarter 2006 were relatively stable, only increasing by 0.8% over March 2005.

Export turnovers in 1^st quarter 2006 were at 8.57 billion USD, increasing by 20.3% against 1^st quarter 2005 and equaling 22.7% of the 2006-year plan. Of which domestic economic sector gained 3.54 billion USD, increasing by 14.1%, contributing 6.1 points percent to the general rate; crude oil nearly 2 billion USD, 16.1% and 3.9 points percent; FDI sector (excluding crude oil) 3.04 billion USD, 31.7% and 10.3 points percent respectively. Four main item: crude oil, textiles, footgear and fishery gained 4.59 billion USD, rising by 19.9% over 1^st quarter 2005, contributing more than half points percent to the export turnovers (+10.7 points percent). Notably, export turnovers of some industrial products like bicycles and spare parts, bamboo, rattan, rush and carpet… continued falling over same period last year. Export of main agricultural and processed products only achieved about one billion USD, increasing by about 4.4% over 1^st quarter 2005 due to slightly high rice prices (+0.6%) and turnovers of some agricultural products decreased over same period last year: coffee: 21.1%; cashew nut: 2.7%; vegetable and fruit: 6.8%; peanut: 83.4%…

Import values in 1^st quarter 2006 were at 8.51 billion USD, increasing by 1.9% against same period last year and accounting for 20% of 2006-year plan, of which domestic sector decreased by 3.6%, foreign invested sector rose by 12.3%. Import turnovers of main raw material for domestic production increased highly: petroleum 15%, plastic 21.1%, chemical products 18%, and fabric 22.7%. However, the matter of concern is that import of machinery and equipments, tools and spare parts, textiles, leather materials, wood and materials, oil, steel, fertilizers and cotton was lower than same period last year. This could affect the domestic production in the next quarter.

Passenger carriage in 1^st quarter 2006 was at 324.1 million people and 13.5 billion passengers-kilometers, increasing by 7.8% in passengers and 8.6% in passengers-kilometers against same period last year. Cargo transport was at 84 million tons and 21 billion tons-kilometers, increasing by 7.8% in tons and 7.5% in tons-kilometers versus same period last year. Sea, river and land cargo transport increased well in both tons and tons-kilometers with the rate 6-9% while air cargo transport fell in both tons and tons-kilometers; rail cargo transport decreased by 0.8%.

Tourism activity was animated in 1^st quarter 2006. A lot of visitors in and out side the country were attracted to festivals, temples, pagodas and beauty-spots. International arrivals to Vietnam  were estimated at 980.1 thousand, increasing by 16.3% against same period last year, of which arrivals for business purpose raised 34%, for tourist and entertainment 15.5%; for visiting relatives 12%; for other purposes 9.1% respectively. Notably, international visitors came by airway rose by 26.9% over same period last year while visitors came by land and sea decreased; visitors from China fell by nearly 25%.

Tags: Vietnam economic 2006, Vietnam economic statistics, Vietnam's economy situation