Vietnam’s economic situation for the 9 months of 2007

1. Major economic indicators

a. Gross domestic products (GDP): GDP in 9 months were estimated increasing by 8.16% against 9 months of 2006. Of which, the agriculture, forestry and fishery sector increased by 3.02%; the industry and construction by 10.15% and the service by 8.54%. As compared with 9 months of the previous years, the first sector increased not very high due to the decrease in producing food and disease in livestock feeding in many localities; the 2^nd and 3^rd sectors rose relatively high, so that the growth rate of GDP of 2007 was the highest during the 10 past years. Notably, GDP by quarter got higher and higher: Quarter I increasing by 7.73%; Quarter II by 7.98%; Quarter III by 8.69%. The quarter IV is expected to increase by 9 – 9.5% and GDP of 2007 will rise by 8.4 – 8.5%.

b. Investment: Realized investment for development in 9 months of 2007 at current prices was estimated achieving 334.8 trillion VND, increasing by 16.3% against same period last year. Of which, state investment was 150.2 trillion VND, accounting for 44.9% and increasing by 6.9%; non-state investment: 131.1 trillion VND, accounting for 39.1% and rising by 27.7%; FDI investment: 53.5 trillion VND, accounting for 16% and rising by 20%. As estimated for the whole year 2007, total investment for development could reach 465 trillion VND, accounting for 40.9% of GDP and rising by 16.6% against 2006.

c. Government revenues and expenditures: Total government revenues in 9 months of 2007 were estimated increasing by 18.4% against same period last year and achieved 72.4% of the year estimate. Of which domestic revenues increased by 28.1% and gained 74.3%; export revenues: 48% and 78.9%; aid revenues: 27.7% and 93.7% respectively.

Total government expenditure was estimated increasing by 16.2% against same period last year and achieving 69.9% of yearly estimate. Of which, spending for capital construction was 61.8%; current expenditure: 75.4%; salary reform: 66.1%; debt and aid settlement: 77.7%. Of current expenditure, spending for education, training and vocation training achieved 75.1%; health service: 74.8%; pension and social welfares: 75.7%; public services: 77.7%; public administration: 75.3%.

Overspending in 9 months accounted for 14.1% of total expenditure of 9 months and equaling 62.2% of the year-estimated deficit, of which 73.9% made up with the domestic loans and 26.1% made up with the oversea loans.

2. Agriculture, forestry and fishery

a. Agriculture: The focus of this month was summer-autumn rice harvest in the South and winter crops cultivation in the North. According to local reports, as of mid-September, 1,595.1 thousand ha summer-autumn rice were harvested in the whole country, equaling 77.6% of total planted areas. Average rice productivity was estimated achieving 4530 kg/ha, rising 340 kg/ha against same period last year. This rather high productivity resulted in the yield of  9,956 thousand tons summer- autumn rice for this year, increasing by 262.1 thousand tons against same crop last year, although planted areas (2,199.1 thousand ha) decreased by 118.3 thousand ha. The North has finished winter rice cultivation with 1,199.5 thousand ha, falling by 5.7 thousand ha against same crop last year.

Generally for the whole year, rice cultivation achieved 7,183.8 thousand ha, decreasing by 141 thousand ha against 2006. Of which, winter-spring rice was 2,988.6 thousand ha, falling by 6.9 thousand ha; summer-autumn rice: 2,199.1 thousand ha, falling by 118.3 thousand ha; winter rice: 1,996.1 thousand ha, falling by 15.8 thousand ha. Though planted areas decreased, average rice yield of 3 crops was estimated achieving 4,950 kg/ha, increasing by 60 kg/ha against same period last year. Whole year rice yield was estimated achieving 35.6 million tons, falling by 260 thousand tons against 2006, (winter-spring rice decreased by 568 thousand tons, summer–autumn rice rose by 262 thousand tons and winter rice by 46 thousand tons).

Animal husbandry: this sector is generally developing but not a high rate and unequal among localities. According to the livestock feeding survey result of 1/8/2007, buffalo heads were 3 million, rising by nearly 2.6% against 1/8/2006; the herd of cattle: 6.7 million, by 3.3%; pig heads: 26.6 million, falling by 1.1%; poultries: 226 million, rising by 5.3% (chicken: 158 million, rising by 3.9%; water-bird: 68 million, by 8.7%).

b. Forestry: The area of concentrated forestation in 9 months was estimated to achieve 148.2 thousand ha, increasing by 0.3%; the areas of separated forestation gained 166.4 million trees, falling by 1.3%. The areas of reforestation gained 731.4 thousand ha, rising by 1.1%; the areas of protected forestation: 377.8 thousand ha, falling by 2.8%. Wood cut production was 2,333.4 thousand m³, rising by 1.3%. As estimated for the whole year 2007, there are nearly 12.85 million ha of forest, increasing by 311 thousand ha against 2006, that brings the ratio of forest covering from 37.9% in 2006 to 38.8% in 2007, approximately to the rate 39% of plan mentioned.

c. Fishery:

Total fishery production in 9 months of 2007 was estimated achieving 2,996 thousand tons, increasing by 9.4% over same period last year, of which fish was 2,215 thous. tons, rising by 10.7%; shrimp: 357 thousand tons, rising by 7.8% and others: 424 thousand, by 4.5%.

Generally for 9 months, the agriculture, forestry and fishery output value was estimated at 1994 constant prices achieving 136,822 billion VND, increasing by nearly 4.2% against same period last year, of which agriculture: 98,448 billion VND, rising by 2.6%; forestry: 4,845 billion VND, by 1.1%; fishery 33,529 billion VND, by 9.6%.

3. Industrial output

Industrial output value was estimated increasing by 17.1% against same period last year, of which state owned sector increased by 10.3% (central management rising by 13.2%; local management by 3.8%); non-state sector increased by 20.9% and FDI sector by 18.3% (oil and gas decreased by 6.1%, other items rose by 23.4%).

As estimated for the whole year, industrial output value of 2007 would increase 17.2% against 2006, of which state owned sector increased by 10.6%; non-state sector increased by 21% and FDI sector by 18.5%. Among 3 one-digit industries, output value of processing industry rose by 19.1%; mining and quarrying industry increased by 0.2%; electricity, gas and water production and supply rose by 13.6%. This situation showed that value added growth of this sector would not increase highly because the mining and quarrying industry had high value added volume but the output value growth rate fell from 1.3% of 2006 to 0.2% of 2007; proportion of total industrial value also decreased from 7.9% to 6.8%.

4. Trade, price and tourism

a. Total retail sales of goods and services in 9 months were at current prices estimated at 520.5 trillion VND; increasing by 22.8% over same period last year. Of which, state sector gained 55.6 trillion VND, felling by 4.1%; collective sector: 5 trillion VND, rising by 22.5%; individual sector: 297.6 trillion VND, by 24%; private sector: 148.7 trillion VND, by 34.2%; FDI sector: 13.6 trillion VND, by 24.1%.

b. Consumer prices: consumer prices index in September 2007 increased by 0.51% against last month, lower than the rate of August and the lowest of 5 past months. This resulted from the performance of Prime Minister’s Instruction No18/2007/CT-TTg dated on 1/8/2007 on some urgent measurements to restrain consumer price increasing. Generally for 9 months, consumer price index increased by 7.32% against December 2006, of which prices of foodstuff rose by 12.18%; housing and construction materials by 9.66%; food by 7.96%; other by under 6%. As compared with the average rate of 9 months of 2006, the rate of same period of 2007 rose by 7.53%, of which group of food had the highest rate with 14.9% on average; housing and construction materials by 9.95%; foodstuff by 7.86%; others by 3.44 – 6.37%.

c. Total trade turnovers:

Export turnovers was estimated at 35.2 billion USD, rising by 19.4% against 9 months of 2006, of which domestic sector gained 15.4 billion USD, rising by 24.9%; FDI sector (excluding crude oil) was over 14 billion USD, increasing by 31.7%. Almost export commodities had high growth rate, half of total mainly exported commodities gained turnovers of more than 500 million USD. In 9 months, there were 8 items achieving export value of over one billion USD: Textiles: 5.8 billion USD, rising by 31.6%; crude oil: nearly 5.8 billion USD, falling by 11.3%; footgear: nearly 3 billion USD, rising by 13.1%; seafood: 2.7 billion USD, by 13.4%; wood products: 1.7 billion USD, by 24.9%; electric and computer: 1.5 billion USD, by 23.6%; coffee: 1.5 billion USD, by 85.9%; rice: 1.3 billion USD, by 14.9%.

American market is the biggest among Vietnam’s export markets. Export value to America in 9 months gained over 7 billion USD, accounting for 19.9% of total export value, increasing by 19.5% against same period last year. EU market gained 6.5 billion USD, accounting for 18.4% and rising by 29%. ASEAN market achieved 5.9 billion USD, accounting for 16.7% and rising by 26% against 9 months of 2006; Japan: 4 billion USD, for 11.4% and by 3.7%; China: 2.3 billion USD, for 6.5% and by 3.3% respectively.

Import turnovers in 9 months was estimated at 42.9 billion USD, increated by 30.3% against same period last year, of which the domestic sector gained 27.5 billion USD, accounting for 64.1% of total import value and rising by 31.3%; the FDI sector was 15.4 billion USD, accounting for 35.9% and growing by 28.6%. Import deficit in 9 months gained 7.6 billion USD, equaling 21.7% export value in 9 months and over 2.2 times as much as the rate of 9 months of 2006. Trade budget turnover in 8 months showed that import deficit from China was 5.25 billion USD; Taiwan: 3.37 billion USD, Singapore: 3.36 billion USD; South Korea: 2.46 billion USD; Thailand: 1.5 billion USD.

d. International arrivals to Vietnam

International arrivals to Vietnam in 9 months of 2007 were estimated at 3.2 million, increasing by 18.5% against same period last year. Of which arrivals for tourism and relaxing were nearly 2 million, rising by 28.9%, for business: 481.4 thousand, increasing by 14.2%; for visiting relatives: 455.7 thousand, by 4.5%.

5. Transportation, post and telecommunication

a. Transportation: Although the price of fuel usually changes and stands at a high level, the activities of transportation still meet the demands of producing and people’s life. Passenger carriage in 9 months was estimated at 1,130 million and 49.7 billion passengers-kilometers, increasing by 8.5% in passengers and 8.9% in passengers-kilometers against same period last year.

However, traffic accident situation still occurred seriously. Generally, for 8 months of 2007, there had 9,941 cases of traffic accidents, increasing by 0.20% against 8 months of 2006; killing 8,948 persons, rising by 6.07% and injuring 7607 persons, falling by 0.85%. On average a day in 8 months, there occurred 41 accidents, killed 37 and wounded 31. In 8 months, on average there were 4.38 cases of traffic accident per 10 thousand means of transport in land, decreasing by 17.8%; killed 3.99 persons, falling by 11% and wounded 3.40 persons, reducing by 20.6%.

b. The Post and Telecommunication: Telecommunicating activities inside and outside the country continued developing stably at a high growth rate. According to Ministry of Information and Communication, in 9 months there were added 1000 post offices that made the total in the whole country up to 19,218 post offices. Of the total, there were 8,021 commune cultural post offices. Newspaper delivered during a day gained 92.7% of total communes in the country.

The number of new telephone subscribers in September was estimated achieving 800 thousand, rising by 60% over August. In 9 months, there were 12.1 million new telephone subscribers. Up to now, there have been 39.6 million telephone subscribers in the country, including 10.1 million fix telephone subscribers and 29.5 million mobile telephone subscribers. Telephone density gets 46.5 telephones/ 100 persons. There were 750 thousand new Internet subscribers that made total up to 4.82 million Internet subscribers with the rate of 5.6 subscribers per 100 persons. There have been 17.2 million persons (accounting for 20.2% total population) using Internet.

Tags: Vietnam economic 2007, Vietnam economic statistics, Vietnam's economy situation