Vietnam’s 2008 economic data

Our social economy in 2008 was happening in a background of many complicated and difficult-to-anticipate changes over the world and within the country. World prices of crude oil and other raw materials and commodities increased rapidly in mid-year months that brought about high prices of most of goods in the domestic market. Inflation occurred in many countries; the world financial crisis resulted in a recession in big economies, a decline in the world economy; natural calamity and diseases for animals and crops consecutively happened in the whole country, causing great influences on production and people’s life.

Confronted with that situation, the Politburo, National Assembly and Government have promptly considered the situation carefully and promulgated many guiding documents relating to the country’s social-economic development in 2008. Owing to those timing and drastic directives of the Party, NA and Government; great efforts and initiative sense of overcoming difficulties of line ministries, localities, economic groups, enterprises, establishments and all the people our social economy in 2008 step by step overcame many difficulties and challenges. The economy had a fair growth; the inflation was controlled; social security ensured and many urgent social problems were effectively resolved.

I. ECONOMIC GROWTH AND CURBING INFLATION

1. Economic growth

The Gross Domestic Products (GDP) in 2008 at 1994 constant prices were estimated increasing by 6.23% against 2007, of which the agriculture, forestry and fishery sector rose by 3.79%; the industry and construction by 6.33% and the service by 7.2%. Of the general growth rate of 6.23%, the agriculture, forestry and fishery contributed 0.68 point percents, the industry and contruction contributed 2.65 points percent and the service 2.9 points percent. Although, this year’s GDP growth rate was lower than the rate 8.48% in 2007 and the readjusted set goal of 7%, but in the background of the world financial crisis and decline in many economies, that rather high growth was a great effort.

The GDP structure at 2008 current prices was as follows: the agriculture, forestry and fishery accounted for 21.99%, the industry and construction 39.91% and the service 38.1% of GDP.

2. Consumer prices

The 2008 consumer prices happened complicatedly and unusually compared to the trend in previous years. Prices raised highly right from Quarter I and consecutively increasing in quarters II and III, but consecutively fell down in months of quarter IV (compared to previous month, prices in October fell by 0.19%; 0.76% in November and 0.68% in December). Generally, consumer prices were still at a high level. Consumer prices in December 2008 grew by 19.89% against December 2007 and the average prices in 2008 grew by 22.97% against 2007.

3. Government revenues and expenditures

According to report from the Ministry of Finance (MOF), total government revenues in 2008 were estimated increasing by 26.3% against 2007 and equaling 123.8% of the yearly estimate, of which domestic revenue was 110.9%; revenue from crude oil: 143.3%; trade balance revenue: 141.1%.

Total government spendings in 2008 were estimated rising by 22.3% against 2007 and equaling 118.9% of the yearly estimate, of which spending for investment and development was 118.3% (only spending for capital construction was 114.7%); for public services sector, Party, associations, defense : 113.3%, for  debt and aid payments: 100%. Overspending in 2008 was equal 95% of the approved estimate by the NA in beginning of the year.

4. Investment

Social realized capital investments in 2008 were VND 637.3 trillion at current prices, equaling 43.1% of GDP and rose by 22.2% over 2007. Of which the state sector gained VND 184.4 trillion, accounted for 28.9% of the total investment capital and fell by 11.4%; the non-state sector: VND 263 trillion, accounted for 41.3% of the total and rose by 42.7%; FDI sector: VND 189.9 trillion, accounted for 29.8% of the total and rose by 46.9%.

The result of FDI attraction was good. In December 2008, the country had 112 projects newly licensed with USD 1,254 million total registered capital, bringing the total number of licensed project to 19/12/2008 to 1171 with USD 60.3 billion total registered capital, reduced by 24.2% in projects but rose 3.2 times of registered capital against 2007. If USD 3.7 billion additional registered capital of 311 licensed projects in past years was taken into account, the total number of registered capital in 2008 was USD 64 billion, nearly tripled the number in 2007. This is the highest rate to present. Realized FDI in 2008 was USD 11.5 billion, rose by 43.2% over last year.

II. PRODUCTION OUTPUTS OF SECTORS

1. Agriculture, forestry and fishery

Output values of this sector in 2008 at 1994 constant prices were estimated increasing by 5.6% against last year; of which agriculture rose by 5.4%; forestry by 2.2% and  fishery by 6.7%.

a. Agriculture

The  rice yield in whole 2008 was estimated at 38.6 million tons, rose by 2.7 million tons (equivalent to 7.5%) against 2007 due to increase of 200.5 thousand ha in cultivated area, and 230 Kg per ha in productivity . Of which, winter-spring rice gained 18.3 million tons, rose by 7.6% against last year; the summer-autumn rice: 11.4 million tons rose by 12%; the winter rice: 8.9 million tons rose by 2%. If 4.5 million tons of maize were included, the gross cereal production in 2008 was 43.2 million tons, grew by 7.5% against last year.

The production of industrial perennials continued to develop toward the direction of producing goods for domestic consumption and for export: yield of coffee was 996.3 thousand tons, rose by 3.6%; rubber: 662.9 thousand tons rose by 8.7%; tea: 759.8 thousand tons rose by 7.5%; and pepper: 104.5 thousand tons rose by 17%.

Animal husbandry activities were gradually recovering after losses caused by natural calamity and diseases, but the speed was still slow. According to the 01/10/2008 Husbandry Survey, the country had 2898 thousand buffalos, reduced by 3.3% compared to 01/8/2007; 6338 thousand oxen, fell by 5.8%; 26702 thousand pigs rose by 0.5%; poultry developed faster with 247.3 million heads, rose by 9.4%.

b. Forestry

Total area of concentrated forestation in 2008 was 210.8 thousand ha, rising by 6.6% over last year; replanted area: 944.4 thousand ha fell by 0.8%; forest area under care: 486.2 thousand ha fell by 1.2%; woodcut production: 3562.3 thousand cubic meters rose by 2.9%. The phenomena of burnt forest and illegal cutting wood decreased much in 2008 compared to 2007. Total damaged area was 3919.7 hectares fell by 39.5%, of which burnt forest area was 1677.3 ha fell by 67.3%.

c. Fishery

Total fishery production in 2008 was estimated at 4582.9 thousand tons, increasing by 9.2% over last year, of which farmed production gained 2448.9 thousand tons and rose by 15.3%; catching: 2134 thousand tons, rose by 2.9% (sea catching: 1938 thousand tons rose by 3.3%.

Aquaculture in 2008 was developing better than in 2007 mainly because localities continued changing their production and widening the area of aquaculture in the direction of poly-culture. The catching was also less difficult since petroleum price decreased in ending months of the year and the Government had policies of supporting fishermen in petroleum costs, purchasing/establishing new boat or changing the engine, which encouraged fishermen to work harder.

2. Industrial outputs

Industrial output values in 2008 at 1994 constant prices were estimated increasing by 14.6% against last year, of which the state economic sector rose by 4%; non-state sector by 18.8%; FDI sector by 18.6% (oil and gas decreased by 4.3%). Of the total output values, the manufacture accounted for 88.9% and rose by 16% against 2007; the electricity, gas and water 5.7% rose by 13.4%; the mining 5.4% reduced by 3.5% due to a decrease in extracted volume of crude oil and coal compared to last year.

The production of main items generally maintained higher increased rates than 2007. Lorry rose by 40.6%; bus by 38.3%, processed seafood by 29.1%; washing machine by 28%; garments for adults by 27.7%;  transformer by 22.6%; refrigerator by 22.2%; powdered milk by 18.6%; commercial water by 15.2%; television set by 15%; sport shoes by 14.6%; generated electricity by 12.3%; cement by 9.6%. However, other important items only had lowly increased or even lower rates compared to last year, like motorbike rose by 5.5%, air-conditioner by 4.6%; paper and board by 2.3%; chemical fertilizer by 1%; round steel reduced by 10.6%; extracted crude oil by 6.6%; pure coal by 6.1%; chemical paint by 1.9% and textile from cotton yarn by 1.8%.

Large-scale industrial localities having higher growth rates than the general rate were Vinh Phuc: 21.8%; Binh Duong: 21.5%; Dong Nai: 20.7%; Hai Phong: 18.5%; Can Tho: 17.6%; Thanh Hoa: 16.9%. Some provinces/cities having low increased or even lower rates were Ha Noi rose by 12.9%; HCM City by 12%; Quang Ninh by 10.4%; Da Nang by 6.1%; Ba Ria Vung Tau decreased by 0.4%.

3. Trade

a. Total retail sales of goods and services

Total retail sales of goods and services in 2008 were at current prices estimated rising by 31% against 2007 (If the price appreciation factor was excluded, the growth rate was 6.5% only). Of the total, the state economic sector rose by 20.4%; the individual sector by 32.2%; the private sector by 34.3%; the FDI sector by 20.9% against 2007. Of the total, the trade rose by 31.5%; the hotel and restaurant by 26.2%; the service by 31.3 and the tourist by 41.8%.

b. Exports – imports

Export turnovers in 2008 were at an estimate of USD 62.9 billion, rising by 29.5% against last year. Of which, the domestic economic sector gained USD 28 billion, rising by 34.7% and shared 50.3% to the general growth rate; the foreign economic sector excluding crude oil: USD 24.5 billion rose by 26.8% and crude oil: USD 10.5 billion rose by 23.1%. Although, this year’s export turnovers were rather higher than in 2007 but, if the costs of re-exporting steel and gold and the price rising factor of 8 main items (crude oil, coal, rice, coffee, rubber, pepper, cashew nut and tea) were excluded, the export turnovers increased only 13.5%. Of the total, commodity group of heavy industry and minerals accounted for 31%, agricultural products 16.3%.

Generally, the 2008 export turnovers of main items increased compared to 2007, mainly due to the world market rising prices. Eight exported items gaining turnovers of more than USD 2 billion were crude oil: USD 10.5 billion, textile: USD 9.1 billion, shoes & sandals: USD 4.7 billion, fishery: USD 4.6 billion, rice: USD 2.9 billion, wood products: USD 2.8 billion, electronics & computer: USD 2.7 billion and coffee: USD 2 billion (two increased items compared to last year were rice and coffee).

Big export markets for Viet Nam in 2008 were the United States: USD 11.6 billion growing by 14.5%; ASEAN: USD 10.2 billion, rising by 31%; EU: USD 10 billion, rising by 15%; Japan: USD 8.8 billion, rising by 45% against 2007.

Import turnovers in 2008 were at an estimate of USD 80.4 billion, increasing by 28.3% against last year. Of which, the domestic economic sector gained USD 51.8 billion, rising by 26.5%; the FDI sector: USD 28.6 billion rose by 31.7%. Of the total, production material accounted for 88.8%; consumer goods 7.8%. If the price rising factor of some items were excluded, this year’s import turnovers grew only by 21.4% against 2007. The import turnovers of most of main items increased compared to last year.

Among import markets for Viet Nam, ASEAN gained USD 19.5 billion and rose by 22.5%, China: USD 15.4 billion rose by 23.2%, EU: USD 5.2 billion rose by 1.7%, Taiwan: USD 8.4 billion rose by 21.8% and Japan: USD 8.3 billion rose by 37.7% against 2007.

Trade deficits in 2008 were at an estimate of USD 17.5 billion, growing by 24.1% against 2007 and equal 27.8% of total export turnovers. Although trade deficits decreased much compared to the forecast in previous months, the level of trade deficits this year was still high. Of which, the largest amount of imported goods came from Asia: China, raked as the biggest exporter to Viet Nam, gained USD 10.8 billion, rose by more than USD 1.7 billion against 2007.

Together with export and import of goods, the export and import of services also increased in 2008. Total value of export of services in 2008 was at an estimate of USD 7.1 billion, growing by 9.8% against 2007. Of which, tourist gained USD 4 billion, rising by 7.2%; air transport: USD 1.3 billion rose by 23.7%; sea transport: USD 1 billion rose by 27.7%. Total value of import of services in 2008 were USD 7.9 billion, growing by 10.3% against 2007. Of which, tourist gained USD 1.3 billion, rising by 6.6%; air transport: USD 800 million decreased by 2.4%; sea transport: USD 300 million rose by 20%.

4. Services

a. Transport

As estimated, passenger carriage in 2008 gained 1932.3 million times of passengers with 81.7 billion passengers-kilometers, growing by 8.1% in passengers and 7.6% in passengers-kilometers against 2007. Of types of transport, the land grew by 8.8% in passengers and 8.2% in passengers-kilometers; the air: 10.5% and 9.4%, only the rail decreased by 2.1% and 0.4% respectively against last year.

Volume of cargos carried in 2008 was an estimate of 604 million tons with 174.3 billion tons-kilometers, increasing by 8.9% in tons and 40.5% in tons-kilometers against last year. Of which sea transport gained 51 million tons with 141.8 billion tons-kilometers, rising by 21.8% in tons and 49.9% in tons –kilometers (tons-kilometers increased much because the capacity of ships has been enhanced).

b. Communication

Postal and communication services continued developing in 2008, chiefly the telecommunication. New telephone subscribers in 2008 grew rapidly, bringing the total number of subscribers to end of December 2008 to 79.4 million. Of which, table telephone subscribers were 13.1 million, (the VNPT had 10.3 million subscribers, growing by 11.5% against same period last year). The market for internet continued developing with a number of new internet subscribers of 1.5 million in 2008, bringing the total number of internet subscribers to end of December 2008 to 6.7 million, growing by 28.4% against same period last year.

c. Tourism

International arrivals to Vietnam in 2008 were estimated at 4.3 million, increasing by 0.6% against last year only. Of which, visitors came for tourist purpose were 2.6 million, rising by 1%; for business purpose: 644.8 thousand rose by 25.4%; for visiting relatives: 509.6 thousand fell by 15.2%; for other purpose: 267.4 thousand fell by 23.3%.

Of the total number of visitors to Viet Nam, passengers from China rose by 13.1%; from the United States rose by 2.2%; from Thailand rose by 9.6%; from Singapore rose by 14.6% against 2007. Countries having a reduced number of visitors to Viet Nam in 2008 were Republic of Korea: -5.5%; Japan: -6.1% and Taiwan: -4.9%.

Tags: Vietnam economic 2008, Vietnam economic statistics, Vietnam's economy situation