Vietnam’s coffee export forecast raised to over $2.6b in 2011

Vietnam’s coffee export this year is estimated to reach about 1.2 million tones worth more than $2.6 billion, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development forecasted.

The International Coffee Organization (ICO) estimated the total global coffee output in the crop 2010-11 would be about 133.7 million bags, rising 8.6% from the previous crop. Due to the limitation on supply amid strongly increasing export, the global coffee stockpile in the crop 2010-11 fell sharply, reaching about only 13 million bags, down 33% from the last crop. The global coffee consumption is expected to reach 132.5 million bags, rising 1% year on year.

The world coffee price in February continued to set up a record in accordance with the upward tendency from January. The ICO index increased from 197.35 US cents per bag in January to 216.03 US cents per bag in February, equaling to a rise of 9.5%, marking the record high since June 1977. In comparison with the same period last year, the ICO index in February increased 75.1%.

According to the US Coffee Association, the coffee price increased strongly recently mainly due to the speculation activities. The agency said that the coffee price is now higher 50% than the real price and it must be reduce in the coming time. Indonesia is entering the main harvest of the crop 2011, so the coffee supply will increase and the coffee price is forecasted to fall.

As forecasted by ICO, Vietnam’s coffee output in the crop 2010-11 would reach about 18.4 million bags, increasing 1.3% from the previous crop. The domestic coffee consumption is estimated to reach about 1.58 million bags in 2010, up 375,000 bags from 2009’s.

Statistics from the General Department of Vietnam Custom showed that Vietnam’s coffee export in Jan-Feb 2011 reached 289,600 tones, earning $585.9 million, up 33% in quantity and 90% in value from 2010.

The domestic coffee price tended to go up and doubled from last year. On March 26, the coffee price in the central highland province of Dak Lak reached 47,600 dong per kilogram, up 27.3% from early this year. The robusta 2.5% broken black coffee price for export was at $2,340 per tone on March 26 (FOB price, HCM City), up 21% from the export price early this year.

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