Two economic scenarios for 2012

Vietnam expects to select one of the two supposed economic scenarios with the targets of GDP growth at 6%, consumer price index at 10% and trade deficit at 13.5% of total export turnover, VietBiz24.com cited the Vietnamese Ministry of Planning and Investment on Monday.
Accordingly, the scenario 1 is built on the basis of forecasts on the world economic situation, which is believed to be still more difficult, but tend to recover with a higher growth rate than in 2011.

With this scenario, GDP will grow 6.5%, total exports reach US$101.7 billion, up 13% compared with 2011, and trade deficit will be about 13% of export turnover.

Total state budget revenue will be 740 trillion dong, while the rate of state budget deficit is 4.8% of Vietnam’s GDP. Total capital in social development investment is estimated to account for 34% of GDP. Consumer price index will increase less than 10%.

If based on the first scenario, the current account balance deficit is projected at about US$ 4.37 billion but the balance of capital surplus will be US$10.03 billion. The overall balance of payments surplus in 2012 may be about US$3.16 billion.

The scenario 2 is built in the context of Vietnam’s economic difficulties slowly recovered, while the economic world is developing complicatedly.

Specifically, the GDP will rise 6%, total exports reach US$100 billion, up 12% year-on-year, and trade deficit will be about 13.5% of total export turnover.

The state budget deficit will be 4.8%, while the state budget revenue is lower, reaching only nearly 740 trillion dong. Total capital in social development investment accounts for 33.5% of GDP, and consumer price index is expected to increase less than 10%.

With this scenario, the current account balance is projected to have a deficit of about US$3.67 billion, but offset by the capital balance surplus of US$10 billion. The overall balance of payments surplus in 2012 may be about US$2.63 billion.

In the expected operation of the economy, Vietnam expects to select the scenario 2 to actively handle the situations arising, if the conditions of the world and local economies are more favourable, Vietnam will strive to achieve higher results, Deputy Minister of Planning and Investment Nguyen Van Trung said.

Source: Vietbiz24.com

Tags: Vietnam economic, Vietnam economic growth, Vietnam economy, Vietnam economy 2011, Vietnam economy 2012