Shipping analyst raises growth forecast to 6%

Based on its analysis of the shipping industry, Business Monitor International has boosted its economic growth forecast for Viet Nam this year from 4.4 per cent to 6 per cent and is predicting an annual average growth of 6.2 per cent over the next five years.

In its Viet Nam Shipping Report for the fourth quarter, Business Monitor International (BMI) is projecting port volume at HCM City to increase by 6.2 per cent, following the 5.2-per-cent contraction during last year’s slump. Container shipping was expected to rise by 3.5 per cent.

At Da Nang Port, the report predicted overall volume would rise by 2.3 per cent but that container shipping would increase by a more substantial 6.2 per cent.

Viet Nam’s total import-export activity would see a recovery this year, BMI said, with 5.4 per cent growth, followed by a slightly stronger pick-up in 2011. Over the next five years, total foreign trade would expand at an annual average rate of 6.5 per cent, BMI calculated, while exports would grow at an average rate of 7.3 per cent per year, outpacing the expected 5.9-per-cent growth in imports.

Although the possibility continues that the trade deficit and inflation would both rise sharply in the near future, strong inflows of foreign investment would serve as a counterweight on the balance-of-payments front, as well as play a role in improving the country’s stretched infrastructure, BMI said.

BMI saw signs of catch-up investment in Viet Nam’s ports after a contract was signed in June by Gemalink Joint Stock Co and South Korea’s Dealim-SAMWHA alliance to develop the Gemalink Cai Mep Container Terminal. This follows the announcement last October by Japan’s largest shipping company, Mitsui OSK Line (MOL), that it would establish a terminal operating company to build and manage a new container terminal at Cai Mep. — VNS

Tags: Vietnam shipping industry