Seafood export target too optimistic: Agromonitor

The seafood export target of US$ 4.5-4.7 billion for this could be too optimistic, according to the Hanoi-based Vietnam Market Forecast and Analysis Joint Stock Company, commonly known as Agromonitor.

Dau Tu (Vietnam Investment Review) newspaper reported that Agromonitor’s annual report forecast a growth of 4 percent rather than the 7.1 percent envisaged by the government while setting the target.

The forecast is based on a report by the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization.

The prospects of economic recovery in Vietnam’s main seafood import markets like the US, Japan, and the EU have been shadowed by unstable macroeconomic indexes — like deflation in Japan and record unemployment rates in the EU and US.

A proposal by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) to expand the definition of catfish to include Vietnamese pangasius will virtually amount to an import ban since catfish are subject to more stringent inspections than pangasius and Vietnam will not be able to implement the inspections cheaply or quickly.

Japan, one of the main buyers of Vietnamese shrimp, is unlikely to increase imports as long as its economic outlook remains gloomy this year.

The EU is becoming a harder market to crack with regulations to prevent, deter and eliminate illegal, unreported, and unregulated — or IUU — fishing taking effect this year. Vietnamese seafood exporters will be required to furnish certification for their products.

Vietnamese seafood exporters are also likely to face challenges from other developing nations like India, Thailand, Indonesia, and the Philippines.

The export target, set by the industry-trade and agriculture-rural development ministries, is based on last year’s earnings and certain other factors.

Vietnam News Agency quoted Deputy Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development Luong Le Phuong as saying Vietnamese shrimp could enjoy zero import tax in Japan from this year since the two countries recently began negotiations on a seafood import and export agreement.

Vietnam earned an estimated $1.51 billion from shrimp exports last year, or nearly 40 percent of all seafood exports.

Vietnam has expanded its market to Eastern Europe, north African countries, and India, Thoi Bao Kinh te Viet Nam (Vietnam Economic Times) newspaper quoted Truong Dinh Hoe, general secretary of the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Processors, as saying.

Seafood exports have amounted to $628 million in the first two months of this year, up 41 percent from last year.

Tags: Vietnam Seafood, Vietnam seafood exports, Vietnam seafood exports 2010