Pepper may fall on profit booking

Fundamental Analysis

Lower production in India and Vietnam, the major producer of pepper hoarding the commodity will keep pepper prices strong in the short term (April).

Indian pepper prices as compared to other origins are at higher levels at around $3500/tonne but Vietnam hoarding the pepper stocks due to lower availability will make overseas buyers to shift to India.

In the medium to long term (May onwards) prices will depend on the pepper stocks in Indonesia and Brazil. Demand from the overseas and domestic market, clear production estimates of Vietnam.

Technical Analysis

Prices closed above its 10-Day and its 20-Day EMA indicating upward trend.

The 14-Day RSI is at 75.4, and is in overbought region.

Outlook:

Pepper prices in the intraday are expected to trade higher due to buying by the domestic stockiest. In the short term (April) Pepper prices will depend on demand from the domestic and overseas buyers and fresh pepper arrivals in Vietnam. In the medium to long term (May onwards) prices is likely to track demand from the overseas and domestic market, pepper production in Indonesia, pepper price parity of the major origins such as Brazil, Indonesia, India and Vietnam.

Angel Commodities

Tags: Vietnam black pepper, Vietnam pepper exports, Vietnam Pepper prices