ICT Development Forecasts for 2010
The ICT (Information and Communication Technology) Press Club recently held a seminar to talk about 10 forecasted ICT development trends in Vietnam in 2010. These are as follows:
1. Developing 3G services to attract subscribers
3G (third generation technology) based services depend much on smartphone 3G and USB fast connect. Gartner said that in 2009 the sales of smartphone accounted for about 14 percent of the total handset sales, an increase of 24 percent compared with 2008. The mobile equipment market was in a similar situation. The price of a USB Fast Connect was high, about US$100. It takes time and it costs several trillion dong to develop 3G services in Vietnam. Therefore it is predicted that in 2010 domestic mobile phone networks will not yet be able to make use of all the advantages of 3G but instead are using it just to attract more subscribers.
2. Decline in CDMA
The CDMA (Code Division Multiple Access) technology hardly exists in the Vietnamese market due to growing competition. Moreover, this technology cannot develop because of the lack of terminal equipment. In 2010, companies that use the CDMA technology will continue to operate but there will be almost no opportunity for them to compete with those who use the GSM (Global System for Mobile) technology.
3. Software industry to reach the US$800 million sales target
The sales target of the Vietnamese software industry for 2010 is US$800 million. In general, software projects in 2010 will be moderate in terms of both technology and contract value. The world economy is recovering but difficulties remain numerous and therefore domestic software companies are not likely to receive big orders. It is also the case that Vietnamese human resources in software development remain weak. Hence it is predicted that there will be no breakthrough in the software sector in 2010.
4. The explosion of security service providers
Software services will surely develop strongly. However, the demand for security services is higher than the demand for common types of software services, especially in the financial and banking sector. Meanwhile, Vietnam still lacks human resources and technical means to provide security services. Some foreign companies such as Kaspersky, Norton and McAfee have penetrated the Vietnamese market. If domestic companies do not improve their operations, they will struggle to compete with their foreign rivals.
5. Growth in digital content providers
In 2010, content digitalization will continue. The development of mobile phone networks and 3G will increase the number of companies that provide digital content and related services. However, the dependence of mobile phone networks on the means of payment will continue to be a barrier for digital content providers. Therefore, it is predicted that in 2010 the number of successful content service providers will not be high.
6. Online payments to become popular
Providers (banks and about 20 companies that accept online payment) are prepared to offer these services. Despite technological mistakes and some problems that have occurred during the transaction process, more and more people are becoming interested in online payment services. The demand for online payment services will grow as the traffic volume in big cities increases and online payments become more popular.
7. Domestic social networks will win over foreign networks
After Yahoo!360 closer, is was replaced with Yahoo!360 Plus but the latter has not proved as attractive or successful. This has encouraged domestic companies to offer social networks. Recently, ZingMe, Vinagame’s social network came into existence in July 2009, it claims it has 3.5 million users. Facebook has had access problems in Vietnam. These facts may see domestic social networks gain in popularity over foreign providers.
8. Large companies like ERP
Favorable conditions now exist for the ERP (Enterprise Resource Planning) software to become popular in Vietnam: 1) The use of broadband Internet and the application of information technology in Vietnam is expanding; 2) Many companies that are operational in Vietnam are large-sized and have complicated management requirements; 3) Those large companies run successful business and they want their management process to be standardized. The Vietnam Dairy Products Joint Stock Company (Vinamilk), the Electricity of Vietnam Group (EVN), the Nova Group and the Vietnam National Petroleum Corporation (Petrolimex) have spent millions of USD to apply ERP in business management. The economy is recovering and competition is growing – these factors will encourage other large companies to spend money on ERP.
In terms of technology, Oracle and SAP will continue to be the first choice. However, the number of domestic ERP developers remains small while foreign ERP developers find it difficult to cope with the management style and structure of domestic companies. Therefore, it is predicted that some ERP projects will prove time-consuming and unsuccessful.
9. Mobile broadband Internet to predominate over fixed broadband Internet
Among 3G services, mobile Internet is expected to become a key service for mobile phone networks to make up the difference between 3G and 2G. Both Vinaphone and MobiFone have stated the ideal speed of this service (7.2 mbps). If that is true, mobile broadband Internet could become a hindrance to fixed broadband Internet, especially in urban areas beyond Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City.
10. 2010 – The year of young ICT companies
Old companies such as FPT (Corporation for Financing and Promoting Technology), the CMC Corporation and VNPT (Vietnam Posts and Telecommunications Group) will continue to grow but they will make no breakthrough in terms of technology and products (but they can increase sales and see higher profits).
There will be opportunities for younger ICT companies that have developed in the last seven years to grow, especially in the fields of new technology, value added services and security./.
Tags: Vietnam Information technology
Posted by VBN on Jan 11 2010. Filed under Technology. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0. You can leave a response or trackback to this entry
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