HSBC forecasts Vietnam’s CPI at 18.4pct in 2011

HSBC in its recent forecast on Vietnam’s CPI (consumer price index) said that it would be at 18.4% in 2011, which means that the country’s CPI in the last two months this year would increase only 1.15%.
The aforementioned forecast was given at an informal meeting that took place on October 27 between HSBC Vietnam Bank and over 50 high-end customers with a focus on global economic outlook, public debts in Europe and especially Vietnam’s economic prospects in 2012.

According to Trinh Nguye, an analyst from HSBC Hong Kong,, Vietnam’s CPI in 2011 is said to increase 18.4% and slow down to 11.2% in 2012.

Thus, according to the scenario that Vietnam’s CPI in 2011 at 18.4% given by HSBC, the “room” for the remaining two months this year would be 1.15%.

With tendency that the prices of goods often increase in the last months of the year, it will be very hard to reach total CPI in last two months this year at 1.15%.

HSBC also predicted Vietnam’s economic growth this year at 5.8% and it would be 7% in 2012, higher than Ministry of Planning and Investment (MoPI)’s GDP goal at 6.5% sent to the government recently.

In addition, HSBC also said Vietnam’s state budget deficit this year would be about 3.9% of GDP (gross domestic product) and it will slow down to 3.8% of GDP in the next year.

Meanwhile, HSBC forecasted Vietnam’s trade deficit this year at about $13.5 billion and it would be $13.7 billion in the next year.

Regarding the forex rate issue, HSBC continued to maintain its forecast that the US dollar price would reach 21,500 dong by the end of this year and in 2012. HSBC’s forecast was given in the context that the FX rate at banks (October 27) approached 21,000 dong while the interbank forex rate saw a new record of 20,780 dong/US dollar. – Source: Vietbiz24.com

Tags: Vietnam CPI 2011, Vietnam economic, Vietnam economic growth, Vietnam economy, Vietnam economy 2011