Gov’t looks to 2012 GDP growth of 6%

The Government during the second working session of the National Assembly (NA) Standing Committee last week gave two scenarios for Vietnam’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2012 but suggested choosing the lower one at 6%.

Given the 6% scenario, the State budget deficit is set at 4.8% of the nation’s GDP and the total spending will be VND897 trillion. The total export revenue is expected at US$100.8 billion, a 12% year-on-year increase, while trade deficit will be US$13.6 billion, according to Sai Gon Giai Phong.

The Government also set up two scenarios for the 2011-2015 period with GDP growth ranging from 6.5% to 7%. From 2012 to 2015, the Government suggested choosing the higher GDP growth rate of 7% as more positive signs are predicted.

For the 7% scenario, GDP per capita is expected at around US$2,000 annually while the consumer price index and budget deficit will be curbed at 7% and 4.5% in 2015 respectively.

The committee basically agreed with the Government’s projections but the NA Economic Committee asked the Government to make clear why 10 out of 24 targets were not completed this year, including GDP growth, sector structure in GDP and environmental targets.

NA Economic Committee chairman Nguyen Van Giau said the economy saw its efficiency falling sharply in the 2006-2010 period compared to the previous five years, with the Incremental Capital Output Ratio (ICOR) rising to 6.3 from 5.1.

The committee also asked the Government to keep inflation at a single digit next year and curb the average inflation rate from 2011 to 2015 at below 5%. The Government, meanwhile, proposed the figure at under 7%.

The committee also agreed with the Government in calculating and announcing inflation following international standards, which means not putting energy and food prices in the basket of goods used for CPI calculation.

Source Saigon Times

Tags: Vietnam economic, Vietnam economic growth, Vietnam economy, Vietnam economy 2011, Vietnam GDP 2011, Vietnam GDP 2012