Gold up, but dollar strength caps gains

(MarketWatch) — Gold futures inched higher Friday, with buyers finding traction as worries about global growth renewed the metal’s safe-haven appeal, but strength in the dollar kept a cap on the metal’s gains.

Gold for December delivery rose 90 cents an ounce to trade at $1,618.20 on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Prices traded well off the session’s high of $1,642.50 as the dollar gained ground against most if its currency rivals, pressuring prices for most commodities. The dollar index, which measures the U.S. unit against a basket of major currencies, rose to 78.428 from 77.917 late Thursday.

Gold futures were poised to log a loss of more than 11% for the month, down over 1% for the week, but was trading more than 7% higher for the quarter.

“It looks like the worst of any margin-related selling might be behind us, but I don’t think we’ll pop right back up to the recent highs,” said Brien Lundin, editor of Gold Newsletter.

The steep decline for the month was “aided by heavy shorting, and those shorts will likely attempt to defend their positions on the way back up. We are trading upon headlines, however, in every asset class, and breaking news could send gold rapidly in either direction,” he said in emailed comments.

The metal’s September swoon came amid volatile trading, with December futures trading at a record high above $1,900 early this month before embarking on a plunge that took it below the $1,600 level.

Economic data released Friday was mixed. The U.S. Commerce Department said income fell for the first time in almost two years.

The Institute for Supply Management-Chicago Inc. reported that manufacturing activity in the Chicago region expanded at a more rapid pace in September.

Also, a gauge of consumer sentiment rose in September after tumbling to a nearly three-year low in August.

Over in China, the HSBC China Purchasing Managers Index showed the manufacturing sector contracted in September for a third straight month.

“Further indications of weakening in China would be bearish for gold and the entire commodity sector, although the massive physical gold demand we’ve seen in Asia, particularly India, following the price drop would be supportive of the yellow metal,” said Lundin.

“On the other hand, any hints of monetary easing in the U.S. or Europe would send gold quickly higher, possibly forcing a steep, short-covering rally,” he said. “We’ll ultimately see the U.S. and Europe move toward more easing … but I don’t think we’ll see any public moves toward a QE3 or something similar in the very near future.”

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