EIU lowers Vietnam’s 2011 GDP growth forecast to 6%

The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) in its August report lowered the 2011 GDP growth forecast for Vietnam to 6% from initial 6.3% offered in June report.
According to EIU, high interest rates and increasing inflation reduced individual consumer and investment growth. But, the country’s government may bring the inflation under control without big impacts on growth, accordingly the economic growth in the 2012-2015 period is expected at average 6.8% a year.

In addition, EIU predicted, Vietnam’s inflation in 2011 will surge 19% year on year and then slow down from 2012. By 2015, the CPI may increase 6.2% only compared with 2014.

Notably, the interest rate will stay at 18.3% pa within this year and fall down in following years, but still will be kept at 17.5% in 2012. From 2013, the rate will decrease to 12% a year and stop at 11.5% pa between 2014 and 2015.

Vietnam’s budgetary deficit is forecasted to be controlled at the allowable level of below 5% of GDP in 2011, then it will surge again to 5.6% in 2012. Reportedly, the current account deficit on GDP is estimated at 4% in this year, the lowest level in the 2010-2015 period, which tends to rise to 5.2% of GDP by 2014, citing EIU August report.

EIU said, Vietnam’s external debts will continue increasing in next years, up to $54 billion in 2015. Vietnamese dong will keep depreciating against US dollar throughout the period. The forex rate by late 2011 is forecasted at 21,019 dong per US dollar. – Vietbiz24

Tags: Vietnam economic, Vietnam economic growth, Vietnam economy, Vietnam economy 2011, Vietnam GDP 2011

Posted by VBN on Aug 22 2011. Filed under Economy News, GDP. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0. You can leave a response or trackback to this entry