Credit growth by year-end estimated at around 12pct: PM

In 2011, Vietnamese government has been regulating the monetary policy closely and flexibly and the whole banking system’s credit growth this year is estimated to be 12% and money supply growth at 12.5%, the prime minister said in the socio-economic report in 2011 and socio-economic development plan for 2012 and five year 2011-2015 at the opening session of a biannual meeting held by the National Assembly on Oct 20.
Also according to the report, the country’s inflation in 2011 is estimated to be 18%.

As reported, from May 2011, the rise of consumer price posted a slowdown and the rise in the first nine months this year was 16.63% and it is estimated to be about 18% for the whole year.

The government has been running the fiscal policy tightly and saved additional 10% of regular expenditures, at the same time reviewed, cut down and restructured public investments, offered exemption and reduction of many taxes for businesses and individuals. As a results, the state budget deficit in 2011 would fall to 4.9% of GDP (gross domestic product) while the initial plan was 5.3%.

The forex rate has become stable regularly and the foreign currency status of the banking system, foreign currency reserve and international payment balance has been improved. Foreign currency and gold trading activities have been controlled and the country’s public debts were at safe level.

The country’s trade gap this year is estimated to be $10 billion, or 10.5% of the total export turnover, lower than the target.

In the context that the government gives priorities for taming inflation, reducing credit growth and tightening the state budget expenditures, this year GDP growth is estimated to be about 6%.

For 2012, the top priorities are still given for curbing inflation, stabilizing the macro economy, maintaining growth at a reasonable level associated with growth model innovation and economy restructure and improvement of competitiveness quality and efficiency.

Accordingly, in 2012, the government will strive to control inflation at less than 10% and it would be lower in following years and at 5-7% by 2015.

The country’s GDP growth in 2012 would be about 6-6.5% and the average level for 2011-2015 would be 6.5-7%.

The state budget deficit is targeted at 4.8% of GDP in 2012 and 4.5% in following years. Till 2015, Vietnam’s public debts would be equal to 60-65% of the country’s GDP.

The total export turnover in 2012 is expected to be 12-13% versus 2011’s; trade gap at 11.5-12% of the total export turnover and trade gap is targeted at 10% by 2015.

The total investment capital for social development in 2012 would be equal to 33.5-34% of GDP and averagely at 33.5-35% of GDP in five years. – Source: Vietbiz24.com

Tags: Vietnam banking industry, Vietnam credit growth, Vietnam finance, Vietnam financial