Hard to control 2011 inflation at less than 15%’, VEPR says

Even as the measures to curb and stabilize the macro economy may be implemented in remaining 7 months of 2011, this year’s inflation still could rise 15.5 percent

Even as the measures to curb and stabilize the macro economy may be implemented in remaining 7 months of 2011, this year’s inflation still could rise 15.5 percent, the VnExpress reported, citing the forecast of annually economic report.

Vietnam Centre for Economics and Policy Research (VEPR) under Hanoi National University on May 17 announced the annual report on Vietnam’s economy 2011 which summarized the real situation of production, trade and finance after 2010 and outlined some main features of economic outlook 2011.

As the author of the report, Dr Nguyen Duc Thanh and his colleagues wrote that the current world situation with the instability of US economy, European debt crisis, macroeconomic upheavals in China, increasing food prices would affect strongly to Vietnam within this year.

Also Vietnam is facing internally systematic problems such as rising inflation along with high interest rates, and instability of financial, banking system, the report said.

The report also was concerned with big budget deficit and budgetary risks in long term as an array of economic groups including EVN, Petrolimex, PetroVietnam are showing difficulties in finance.

The author and his colleagues forecasted two scenarios for Vietnam’s economy 2011. In the optimistic scenario, the measures to tighten general demand have been maintained till the end of this year, inflation is expected to stop at 15.5 percent as GDP growth may reach 6.18 percent. With the negative scenario, if monetary policies are loosened in the third quarter, the economic growth could rise further to 6.55 percent. However, by that time, CPI may surge 18.2 percent.

Therefore, 2011 CPI in both scenarios are expected to be 2 times higher than the National Assembly’s target approved late last year. – Vietbiz24

Tags: Vietnam 2011 inflation, Vietnam economic, Vietnam economy, Vietnam inflation