GSO predicts CPI rise of 2.5-3.9% in H2

The General Statistics Office (GSO) predicts the consumer price index (CPI) will increase by roughly 2.5-3.9 per cent in the second half of the year, lifting the whole year’s figure to about 17 per cent.

Nguyen Duc Thang, director of the GSO’s Pricing Statistics Department, said that the CPI rise in H2 this year would be lower than the 6.65 per cent figure in H2 last year.

Thang also forecast that the CPI rise in the third quarter would be slower than at other times of the year. However, he said relevant authorities still needed to alleviate factors that could cause food prices to rise.

An upward CPI trend was also anticipated in the fourth quarter, as was usually the case during the busiest shopping period of the year, Thang said.

Following June’s slow surge of 1.09 per cent, the lowest month-on-month rise since the beginning of the year, the Domestic Market Watch Board expected an optimistic result of the CPI in July, saying that this month’s CPI would increase by roughly 0.7-0.9 per cent against the previous month.

The board attributed its expectations to a stable supply source of food and foodstuff that accounts for more than 40 per cent of a commodities’ basket used to calculate the country’s CPI.

However, it also urged relevant authorities to keep a close eye on the food market in order to avoid risks related to supply shortages during the rainy season.

To keep the CPI at 15-17 per cent, as targeted by the Government, Deputy Minister of Industry and Trade Ho Thi Kim Thoa called on relevant ministries and production associations to suggest measures aimed at boosting production, ensuring a stable supply of commodities in order to avoid price hikes.

Thoa said that cities and provinces nationwide must also keep a close watch on markets in order to timely report any instability among supply sources to relevant authorities.

The Government should also carefully consider choosing a suitable time for a petroleum and electricity price hike in order to minimise negative impacts on the CPI, she suggested. — VNS

Tags: Vietnam CPI, Vietnam CPI 2011, Vietnam economic, Vietnam economy