Exports look set to accelerate in 2012

The global economy will recover slowly though growth will accelerate from this year’s rate, while Viet Nam’s export performance will improve, analysts have said.

Speaking at the 2012 Viet Nam Economy Outlook workshop organised by the Viet Nam Economic Times in HCM City yesterday, economist Truong Dinh Tuyen said: “Thailand will face difficulties after its historical floods and as China, Japan, and South Korea open their markets to Vietnamese goods.”

In 2009 and 2010 Vietnamese exports to China grew 40 and 50 per cent respectively as China lost some of its cheap-labour advantage.

“Stabilising the economy and tightening financial and monetary policies are the most important measures needed to ensure Viet Nam’s economic development,” he said.

Tuyen, a member of the National Financial and Monetary Policy Advisory Council, warned that cutting public spending was necessary but that would hinder growth.

“Reducing inflation will bring interest rate downs. Enterprises should be allowed to defer their taxes.

“Japan will invest more in Viet Nam in 2012.”

National Assembly Deputy Tran Du Lich agreed, saying there was need to restructure State-owned enterprises to improve the effectiveness of the economy.

Poor infrastructure, modest quality of human resources, and backward institutions public spending ineffective, he said.

Commercial banks had to list on the stock market, he said.

“The stock and real estate markets have a very close relationship with banks. They should be defrozen next year.”

Nguyen Cao Tri, general director of Ben Thanh Land, said there were 200,000 apartments on the market.

“The figure is tiny in comparison with demand. But we cannot sell them. Could it be due to policies?”

Le Xuan Nghia, deputy chairman of the National Financial Supervisory Commission, warned about the shrinking growth prospects.

“Viet Nam reached its peak in 2006 with 8.26 per cent growth and foreign experts warned that if the Government did not adopt new policies to restructure the economy, the growth would be only 3.8 per cent by 2020,” he pointed out.

He expressed fear about the limited ability to make policy and bring them into practice.

With 2012 expected to be a tough year, senior economist Le Dang Doanh urged businesses to co-operate to cut expenditure for the economy.

He gave the example of goods distribution: “Marketing, advertising, and transport companies should work together to take goods to rural areas.”

Restructuring economy was imperative as were the deployment of IT and modern management and the use of skilled and effective workers, he said.

He urged businesses to be ready with an “exit strategy.”

Viet Nam’s 18 per cent inflation this year ranked second in the world, while interest rates were at a very high level, increasing input costs.

Some 51,000 businesses shut shop, a 21 per cent increase in comparison with 2010.

The stock and real estate markets remained in limbo.

But exports rose by 33 per cent, the exchange rate stabilised, and foreign currency reserves grew.

For 2012 the National Assembly has set targets of 6 per cent GDP growth and containing inflation at below 10 per cent, and the budget deficit at 4.8 per cent.

VNS

Tags: Vietnam exports, Vietnam exports 2011, Vietnam trade