April CPI might rise up to 3%: NDHMoney

Vietnam April CPI is likely to rise up to 3% on-month, NDHMoney analyst forecast using Leontief model with data from 2007 and ARIMA.

The analyst attributed the soaring CPI to the impacts of higher prices in petrol, electricity, and imported goods and lower supply of some goods.

If the prediction comes true, April CPI will rise 9% from last December and 17% on year, which stands third biggest in 15 years after May 2008 and March 2008 figures, the analyst cited. The estimated April figure indicates a short-term uptrend of CPI after Jan figure of 1.74%, Feb 2.09% and March 2.17%.

NDHMoney analyst sees expected inflation at 18-20% with an assumption of unchanged money rotation.

From the macro aspect, Vietnam GDP rose 5.45% in the third quarter while credit growth rate soared to over 5% by late March from the end of 2010, the analyst cited.

Production costs have been constantly rising in April with interest rates rose by 1-1.5% p.a to an average of 16.23% p.a.

Electricity price rose over 15% from March 1; petrol prices rose over 30% in two times on February 24 and March 29, gas prices also saw many hikes in March. Imported price index rose 3.4% in the first quarter

Prices of chemicals, garments, steel, consumption goods, medicine are in the top price hikes.

Contributing to higher CPI this month is lower supply of rice, food, vegetables in the North.

The analyst said he will spare a special attention to prices of food and restaurant services, housing, electricity, water, fuels, construction material and transportation this month. – Stoxplus.com

Tags: Vietnam CPI, Vietnam CPI 2011, Vietnam economic, Vietnam economy

Posted by VBN on Apr 14 2011. Filed under Consumer price index, Economy News. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0. You can leave a response or trackback to this entry