Vietnam’s economy in September and for 9 months of 2005

A. Economic situation

1. General economic aggregates

Gross domestic products (GDP) in 9 months were estimated increasing by 8.1% against last year’s same period, of which the agriculture, forestry and fishery increased by 4.1%; the industry and construction by 10%; the service by 8.2%. For 8.1% GDP, the agriculture, forestry and fishery contributed 0.8%; the industry and construction contributed 4%; the service was 3.3%.

The structure of economic sectors continues to transform towards increasing in the industry and construction and decreasing in the agriculture, forestry and fishery. The proportion of the industry and construction was 40.47% last year’s 9 months up to 41.26% this year’s 9 months; of which the industry was from 34.97% up to 35.77%; the service was from 37.88% up to 38.11%; but the proportion of the agriculture, forestry and fishery decreased from 21.65% to 20.62%.

Total government revenues in 9 months was estimated to achieve 82.3% of yearly estimate, mainly because of increasing in raw oil price that continuously goes up much higher in international market than the price at the time of planning estimate. The domestic revenues achieved 76.8% of the yearly estimate.

Total government expenditure in 9 months fundamentally met the demand of expenses from State Budget, estimated to achieve 74.2% of yearly estimate for 2005, higher than the rate 71.1% of last year’s 9 months; of which spending for investment and development was 70%; debt and aid settlement  77.5%; current expenditure  75.9% (lower than the rate 79.2% last year’s same period). Generally, all significant items of current spending achieved over 75%. Budget deficit was at a low level to GDP and equal to 48.9% yearly estimated deficit, of which it was made up by 68.4% from domestic loans and 31.6% from foreign loans.

2. Agriculture, forestry and fishery

Output value of this sector in 9 months was estimated at 125.87 trillion VND, increased by 5.3% against last year’s same period; of which agriculture gained 93.61trillion VND, increased by 4.3%; forestry: 4.72 trillion VND and by 0.8%; fishery: 27.54 trillion VND and by 9.7%. The details are below:

a. Agriculture

Food production: the planted areas of paddy of the whole year achieved 7339.5 thousand ha, equaling  98.6% of 2004, decreased by 105.8 thousand ha, mainly due to  transforming structure of plants, structure of crops, changing low productive areas into growing high productive plants and raising aquatic products, and natural aftermaths on the other hand. The planted area of spring paddy decreased by 36.5 thousand ha; autumn paddy by 18.7 thousand ha and winter rice crop by 50.6 thousand ha. The paddy production of the whole year was estimated at 4,950 kg/ ha, increased by 100 kg/ha against last year’s same period, the paddy yield achieved 36.3 million tons, increased by 192,000 tons ( 0.5%). If 3.7 million tons of 0ther cereal crops were included, food production of this year would achieve 40.03 million tons, increasing by 449,000 tons as compared with 2004.

Production of annual crops, vegetables and beans increased well. Yield of key perennials  rose up against last year’s same period, mainly due to  increasing in the planted areas; although sunny and drought weather affected on water supply, production of bud tea increased by 4%; rubber by 11.2%; pepper by 6.9%; cashew nut by 10.6%; only coffee decreased by 6.4%. Yield of fruit trees was estimated higher than last year.

According to survey results on  livestock raising as at 01/8/2005, in the whole country there were 2.9 million buffaloes, increased by 1.8% against last year’s same period, cattle 5.54 million and by 12.9%; pigs 27.43 million and by 4.9%; poultries 219.9 million and by 0.8%; yield of pork achieved 2.29 million tons, increased by 13.7%. As at 01/7/2005, there were 3684 livestock farms, increased by 37% against last year’s same period.

b. Forestry

Area of concentrated planted forest in 9 months achieved 140.5 thousand ha, approximately  last year’s same period; the number of separated planted trees was 100.1%; gross output of wood in 9 months (including wood for producing paper) increased by 1.8% against last year’s same period. Prolonged drought and sunny weather in large scale caused a lot of forest fires, besides that destroying forest still continuously happened in many localities. In the whole country, there was 8770 ha damaged forest, increased by 69.4% against last year’s same period, of which area of fired forest was 7094 ha (Kon Tum: 1483 ha; Dien Bien 877 ha)

c. Fishery

Yield of aquatic product in 9 months was estimated at 2494 thousand tons, increased by 7.8% against last year’s same period; of which yield of farmed aquatic products achieved 948 thousand tons, by 15.5%; caught aquatic product: 1546 thousand tons, by 3.5% (caught sea product: 1408 thousand tons, by 3.8%).

3. Industrial output

Industrial output value in 9 months was estimated at 308.6 trillion VND, increased by 16.5% against last year’s same period, of which state owned enterprises increased by 9.6%, non-state sector by 24.8% and FDI sector by 17.2%. Out of the three one-digit economic sectors, output value of mining and exploiting minerals increased by 9% over 9 months of 2004 (increasing slightly due to reducing crude oil by 9%); output value of electricity, gas and water supply increased by 14.6% (electricity by 14%); manufacturing by 17.7%- the highest rate compared with 2 other sectors above, contributed mainly to increasing in industry and general economic growth as well.

Higher production of main manufacturing industrial products against last year’s same period and higher than general growth, contributed remarkable to the industrial growth: processed aquatic products increased by 16.6%; chemical fertilizer by 38%; steel by 18.6%; assembling automobile by 46.9%…However, there were some lower products than the production of last year’s same period such as sugar and sugar syrups, diesel motor, assembling television, bicycles…

Some localities with large scale industrial production had a high increasing speed of industrial output value in 9 months as Ha Noi: 16.1%; Hai Phong: 17.6%; Vinh Phuc: 37.1%; Hai Duong 31.2%; Quang Ninh: 17.9%; Da Nang: 18.8%; Binh Duong: 33.8%; Dong Nai: 21.7%…

4. Investment

Realized investment for development in 9 months of 2005 at current prices was estimated at 226.7 trillion VND, accounting for 75.6% of the year plan. Of the total investment, state investment occupied 52.6%; non-state investment: 30.2%; FDI investment: 17.2%.

Capital construction investment under the concentrated State budget in 9 months in 2005 was estimated at 41.19 trillion VND, accounting for 79.3% of the yearly plan; of which central investment gained 15.55 trillion VND, accounting for 78.1% of the yearly plan; local investment gained 25.65 trillion VND, accounting for 80.1% of the yearly plan.

Foreign direct investment: from 1^st January to 22 September 2005, there have been 570 newly granted license projects with a total capital registered 2,643.9 million USD, increasing by 10% in number of projects and 64% in capital registered over last year’ same period. On average a new project licensed achieved 4.6 million USD, higher than average level 3.1 million USD of last year’s same period

The number of new granted license projects in the industrial and construction sector was 386 with capital registered 1256.9 million USD, occupying 67.7% in the number of projects and 47.6% in capital registered; in the agriculture, forestry and fishery sector: 60 projects with capital registered 109.3 million USD, occupying 10.5% in the number of projects and 4.1% in capital registered; in the service sector: 124 projects with capital registered 1277.66 million USD, occupying 21.8% in the number of projects and 48.3% in capital registered.

There have been 361foreign directed projects increased by 1449.4 million USD for 9 months. There have been 25 Vietnamese projects investing to foreign countries with capital 84.8 million USD (of which 9 projects in Laos; 3 projects in U.S)

5. Trade, price and tourism

Total retail sales of goods and services for 9 months in 2005 were estimated at 344.28 trillion VND at current prices, increasing by 19.7% over last year’ same period (if the price booming factor was excluded this rate was over 10%), of which the state sector only raised 0.5%; the collective sector by 20.7%; the household sector by 19.2%; the private sector by 35.1%; the foreign investment sector by 32.9%. By business activities, commercial activity occupied 77.8% of the total and increased by 17.9% against last year’s same period; hotels and restaurants by 29%; service by 23.5%.

Consumer prices in September raised 0.8% against last month, this has been the highest rate since March and higher than the rate of every September since 2001. For 8 groups of goods and services had rising prices, prices for means of transport and communication rose at remarkable rates (+3.8%); prices for housing and building material raised 1.7%; education by 1.3%; sewing products, footwear and hats by 0.6%. As compared with December 2004, consumer prices in September 2005 increased by 6.8%, of which prices for all commodities and services increased: food & foodstuff increased by 8.4%; means of transport and communication by 9.8%; housing and building material by 7.2%…Consumer prices in September 2005 increased by 7.8% against last year’s same period and higher than the rate 7.3% of August.

Gold price in September 2005 increased by 1.6% over last month and decreased by 1.4% over December 2004 and raised 8.7% as compared with September 2004. USD price in September was equivalent to last month, increased by 0.6% over December 2004 and by 0.7% over September 2004.

Total trade turnover in 9 months of 2005 was estimated at 52.89 billion USD, increased by 20.1% against last year’s same period, of which exports by 21.1% and imports by 19.2%. The gap between the increasing in exports and imports has narrowed, because imports tended to rise more slowly than exports; the excess of imports over exports was 3.89 billion USD, equaling 16.6% of export turnovers.

The value of export turnovers in September was estimated at 2.8 billion USD, reduced slightly as compared with 3.06 billion USD in August, but increased by 24.1% over September 2004. For 9 months, export turnovers were 23.5 billion USD. There were 4 items such as: crude oil, textiles & sewing products, footwear and aquatic products that gained more than 2 billion USD and 3 other items achieving about over 1 billion USD: rice, wood & wood products, electronic commodity & computer.

Exporting crude oil in 9 months increased by 1.34 billion USD against last year’s same period, contributed to 32.8% of the increasing in export turnovers, mainly due to raw oil price in 9 months raised 46.4% while the quantity of export reduced 9.3%. Exporting rice achieved 1.18 billion USD, equaling 4.38 million tons, raised 52.5% in turnover and 32.6% in quantity over September 2004, average exporting price in 9 months increased by 15%. Coal raised 78.9% in turnover and 35.6% in quantity; wood & wood products achieved 1.08 billion USD, went up 44.4%; electronic commodity & computer: 1 billion USD, by 32.2%. Vietnam still maintained its export markets with stability and increasing over last year’s same period, especially in some big markets such as U.S, Japan, Australia, ASEAN and EU.

The value of import turnovers for 9 months was estimated at 27.39 billion USD, increasing by 19.2% against last year’s same period: domestic sector 17.55 billion USD, increasing by 17.1%; foreign invested sector by 23.1%. Up to now, the import value each month on average was 3.04 billion USD.

Import turnovers of fuel, raw materials mainly serving for domestic production increased, of which some items had import turnover increasing over 30% against last year’s same period such as petroleum, steel & iron, plastic and paper…Import turnovers increased mainly due to high costs of important items so that the imported quantity didn’t rise correlatively or reduced against last year’s same period: petroleum import raised 8.2%, iron & steel: 14.2%, plastic: 10.5%…Import turnovers of machinery, equipment and accessory achieved 3.83 billion USD, slightly reduced (-1.6%); auxiliary materials for sewing and leather: 1.64 million USD, decreased 0.4%; cotton reduced 8.9%; fertilizers reduced 13.8%…But motorbike import was 406 million USD, increase by 31.3% against last year’s same period, of which assembling motorbike import raised 138.1% (31,000 motorbikes, equaling 3.7 times over last year’s same period).

6. Transportation

Volume of passengers carried in 9 months of 2005 was estimated at 950 million and 40.1 billion passengers-kilometers, increasing by 6.8% in passengers and 11.5% in passengers-kilometers against last year’ same period, of which transport by land accounted for 84.7% of passengers and increased by 7.4%; transport by airways achieved 4.7 million passengers, increasing by 24.7% in passengers and 29.3% in passengers-kilometers.

Volume of cargos carried achieved 237.4 million tons and 59.2 billion tons-kilometers, increasing by 7% in tons and 10.8% in tons-kilometers against last year’ same period, of which transport by seaways accounted for 77.5% of total tons-kilometers carried, increasing by 12.3% (if considering tons carried it accounted for over 11% and increased by 7.9% only); by land 7.5% and 7.8%; by river-ways 5.7% and 4.1% respectively.

The tourist activity in 9 months ran well with an estimated number of international arrivals of 2.56 million, increasing by 20.6% against same period last year, of which visitors coming for tourist purpose increased by 31.5%; for visiting relatives by 11.1%, and for other purposes by 25.7%. Only visitors coming for business purpose with 352,700 persons decreased by 6.9%. 

Tags: Vietnam economic 2005, Vietnam economic statistics, Vietnam's economy situation