Supplementary assessment of 2008 outputs, socio-economic situation in 1st Quarter 2009 and forcast of implementation of 2009 planned figures

Continuously for more than last two years the country has been adversely and complicatedly affected by the world economy. Thanks to the timely and positive guiding of the Party, National Assembly and Government; with the great efforts made by and the self-motivated spirit of overcoming difficulties of ministries, localities, economic corporations and enterprises and establishments, and the unanimity of the entire people, the socio-economy has initially  overcome difficulties and challenges. Inflation has been controlled, priority been given to investment in development of production, good achievements attained in the social security, stability in politics.

I.  Supplementary assessment of 2008 outputs

On 29/12/2008 the General Statistics Office (GSO) had an assessment report of the 2008 general social-economic situation, of which data for December 2008 were estimates. After updating more information, GSO has reevaluated some economic indicators of 2008 as follows:

(1). Agriculture, forestry & fishery: Rice yield of the year is 38.7 million tons (estimated data for12/2008 was 38.63 million tons); cassava: 9.4 million tons (estimated data for12/2008 was 9.1 million tons); coffee: 1055.8 thousand tons (estimated data for12/2008 was 996.3 thousand tons). The production value of agriculture, forestry and fishery at 1994 constant prices rises by 6% against 2007, of which, agriculture grows by 6% (in estimated data for12/2008 the production value rose by 5.6%; of which, agriculture grew by 5.4%).

(2). Industry: The production growth rate of the industry as a whole is down from 14.6% to 13.9% compared to 2007, of which, the manufacturing fell from 16% to 15.3%; the electricity, gas and water supply from13.4% to 11.7%.

(3). Exports & imports: The total 2008 export turnovers are USD 62.7 billions, decreasing by USD 221 millions compared to the initial estimate , the import turnovers are USD 80.7 billions, increasing by USD 298 millions, the 2008 import surplus is USD 18 billions, rising by 26.8% against that of 2007 and equaling 28.8% of total export turnovers (estimated data for12/2008 said import surplus was USD 17.5 billion, rising by 24.1% against 2007 and equaling 27.8% of total export turnovers).

(4).Gross Domestic Products (GDP): GDP in 2008 at 1994 constant prices gains VND 489.8 trillions, rising by 6.18% against 2007, of which, the agriculture, forestry and fishery grows by 4.07%; the industry and construction by 6.11%; the service by 7.18% (the estimated data for 12/2008 said GDP at 1994 constant prices gained VND 490.2 trillions, rose by 6.23% against 2007, of which, the agriculture, forestry and fishery grew by 3.8%; the industry and construction by 6.33%; the service by 7.2%).

II. Social-economic situation in 1^st Quarter of 2009

1. Economic growth

The Gross Domestic Products (GDP) in 1^st Quarter of 2009 estimated growing by 3.1% against same period last year, of which, the agriculture, forestry and fishery rose by 0.4%; the industry and construction by 1.5%; the service by 5.4%. Of the general economic growth, the agriculture, forestry and fishery contributed by 0.1 point percent; the industry and construction by 0.7 point percent; and the service by 2.3 points percent.

2. Agriculture, forestry & fishery

The production value in 1^st Quarter of 2009 estimated rising by 0.9% against same period in 2008, of which, the agriculture fell by 0.1%; the forestry rose by 2.5%; and the fishing by 3.9%.

a. Agriculture

As of 15/3/2009 the country had 2986 thousand ha of winter-spring rice cultivated, equaling 102.6% of same period last year. Also to mid of 3/2009, provinces in the Mekong River Delta harvested 770.5 thousand ha of winter-spring rice, the estimated productivity was 6,270 kg/ha, fell by 170 kg/ha against last winter-spring crop; the yield reached 9.7 million tons, down by 1.3%. The yield of winter crops was lower than that of same period last year, of which, maize was 58.4%; sweet potato 71%; soybean 33.2%; peanut 67.9%; and vegetables 85.9% of same period last year.

The husbandry of animals and poultry was developing at a rather stable rate, in Q. I/2009, the ox herd estimated rising by 1%; pigs by 3%; and poltry by 6% against same period last year. To 18/3/2009, 5 provinces in the country had the bird flue: Sóc Trăng, Cà Mau, Bạc Liêu, Quảng Ninh and Điện Biên; 3 provinces had the mouth and foot disease: Bắc Kạn, Kon Tum and Nghệ An; 3 provinces had the blue-ear disease that did not pass 21 days: Bạc Liêu, Quảng Ninh and Quảng Nam.

b. Forestry

The concentrated forestation areas in Quarter I/2009 estimated reaching 25.3 thousand ha, rose by 4.1%; wood-cut production: 494,000m³, up by 2% against same period last year. Generally for the three beginning months of 2009, total damaged forest areas were 489 ha, rose by 77% against same period last year, of which, fired areas were 244 ha, up by 68.2%.

c. Fishery

The production in Quarter I/2009 estimated growing by 5.2% against same period last year, of which, fish rose by 4.9%; shrimp by 3.1%. The yield of aquaculture in Quarter I/2009 estimated falling down by 0.2% against same period last year due to high costs of feed and tending narrowing foreign consuming markets. Areas for raising catfish fell down by over 20%, areas for raising shrimp down by 8%. Catching production in Quarter I/2009 estimated growing by 9.2% against same period last year, of which, sea-catching rose by 9.8%.

3. Industry

The production value in Quarter I/2009 increased by 2.1% against Q. I/2008, of which, the state economic sector fell down by 3.2%; the non-state sector rose by 5%; the FDI sector by 2.9% (oil and gas rose by 13.1%, others by 1.5%). Of production branches, the production value of the manufacturing in Q. I/2009 rose by 1.8%; the electricity, gas & water supply by 3.6%; the mining by 6.1% against same period last year.

Generally for Quarter I/2009, the production of many industrial products reduced strongly compared to same period last year , of which, round steel fell down by 3.3%; washing machine by 8.9%; seafood by 12%; motorbike by  12.7%; vegetable oil by 14.5%; air-conditioner by15.1%; chemical fertilizer by 22.1%; bus by 33.7%; textile from cotton yarn by 38.3%; paper & paper board by 39.2%. However, some other products still maintained stable growths such as extracted crude oil went up by 16.9%; beer by10.4%; cement by 10%; powdered milk by 7.9%; lorry by 7.4%; and cigarettes by 6.6% against same period in 2008.

Some provinces had higher growth rates than the general rate: Thanh Hóa rose by 9.6%; Hải Phòng by 6.9%; Cần ThÆ¡ by 6.7%; Đồng Nai by 6.6%; Hà Ná»™i  by 5.7%; Bà Rịa – VÅ©ng Tàu by 5.6%; Khánh Hòa by 5.4%; and Bình DÆ°Æ¡ng by 4%. Some others had decreased or slower rates like Phú Thọ fell down by 19.7%; VÄ©nh Phúc by 17.6%; Đà Nẵng by 13.8%; Hải DÆ°Æ¡ng by 6.3%; Hồ Chí Minh tăng City rose by 1.9%; and Quảng Ninh by 0.4%.

4. Investment

Realized investment capital in 1^st Quarter of 2009 estimated increasing by 9% against same period last year; of which, capital in the state sector grew by 20%; capital in the non-state sector by 30%; the foreign direct investment (FDI) fell down by 32%. Investment from the state budget accounted for 17.8% of the yearly estimate, of which investment under central management occupied 20.2%; investment under local management was16.8%.

FDI from 1/1/2009 to 20/3/2009 was USD 6 billions, fell down by 40.1% against same period in 2008, including USD 2.2 billions of newly registered capital of 93 licensed projects (reduced by 72.2% in projects and by 69.7% in registered capital against same period last year) and USD 3.8 billion of additionally registered capital of 34 times of licensed projects in previous years.

5. Government revenues and expenditures

Total government revenues from beginning of the year to 15/3/2009 estimated equaling 18.5% of the yearly estimate, of which, domestic revenues were 19.2%; revenues from crude oil: 16.1%; revenues from trade balance: 18.4%. Of the domestic revenues, revenues from state-owned enterprises were 24.3%; from FDI enterprises (excluding crude oil): 14.3%; from industrial, commercial and service taxes in the non-state sector: 18.8%; from taxes on high income persons: 16.7%; from petroleum fees: 21.1%; from other fees: 13.7% of the yearly estimate.

Total government expenditures from beginning of the year to 15/3/2009 estimated equaling 16.3% of the yearly estimate, of which, spending for investment and development was 16.5% (only spending for capital construction was15.9%); for public services sector, Party, associations, defense: 19.2%; for debt and aid payments: 16.3% of the yearly estimate.

6. Trade, prices, services

a. Total retailed sales of goods and services

Total retailed sales of consumer goods and services in Quarter I/2009 estimated growing by 21.9% against same period in 2008, of which, trade business rose by 23.5%; hotel & restaurant by 15,8%; tourist by16.8%; and services by 13.5%. If the factor of price fluctuation was excluded, the total retailed sales of consumer goods and services in Quarter I/2009 rose by 6.5% against Quarter I/2008, which was lower than the growth rate 11% of same period last year.

b. Exports & imports

Export turnovers in Quarter I/2009 estimated at USD 13.5 billions, rose by 2.4% against same period last year, of which, the state sector gained USD 7.6 billions, rose by 40.3%; the FDI sector (except crude oil): USD 4.5 billions, fell by13%. If USD 2.3 billions of re-exporting gold was not taken into account, the export turnovers in Quarter I/2009 were USD11.2 billions, fell by 15% against same period last year.

The exportation of some agricultural products in Quarter I/2009 still maintained a high growth against Quarter I/2008 like: rice reached 1.7 million tons, rose by 71.3% and the turnovers were USD 785 millions, rose by 76.2%; pepper rose by 64.5% in volume and by 15.5% in turnovers; tea by 10.2% in volume and by 10.5% in turnover; vegetables by 2.6% in turnovers; coffee though fell by 7.1 in turnovers due to low prices but rose by 21.4% in volume. Many exported items had lower turnovers compared to same period last year, of which, textile gained USD 1.9 billions, fell by 0.1%; shoes and sandals: USD 915 millions, down by 10.8%; seafood: USD 714 millions, down by 10.4%; coffee: USD 634 millions, down by 7.1%; wood and wood products: USD 527 millions, down by 22.9%; electronics, computers and spare parts: USD 496 millions, down by 12.8%; coal: USD 262 millions, down by 1.4%; crude oil though gained 4.3 million tons, rising by 22.4% in volume, but   the turnovers were only USD 1.4 billions, fell by 45.5% as the average price reduced by 55%.

Import turnovers in Quarter I/2009 estimated at USD 11.8 billions, fell by 45% against same period last year, of which, the state economic sector gained USD 7.5 billions, reduced by 50.4%; the FDI sector: USD 4.3 billions, down by 32.4%. The import turnovers of machinery and equipment were USD 2.4 billions, down by 30.2% against same period last year; petroleum reduced by 17.7% in volume and by 60.2% in turnovers; steel down by 65% in volume and by 71% in turnovers; fertilizer by 16.5% in volume and by 33.8% in turnovers; textile yarn by 7.2% in volume and by 28.7% in turnovers; automobile in complete unit down by 71.2% in volume and by 72.4% in turnovers; motorbike by 50.7% and by 34.7% respectively.

Export surplus in Quarter I/2009 estimated at USD 1.6 billions, equaling 12.2% of the total export turnovers. If the turnovers of gold re-exportation were excluded, the trade deficits in Quarter I/2009 were USD 640 millions, equaling 5.7% of the total export turnovers.

c. Consumer prices

Consumer prices in 3/2009 reduced by 0.17% against last month, of which, restaurant and catering services reduced by 0.46% (grain rose by 1.27%; foodstuff reduced by 1.55%); means of transport, postal services down by 0.55%; culture, sport, entertainment by 0.12%. Prices of other groups of commodities and services increased slightly: education by 0.09%; textile, hat, shoes & sandals by 0.19%; medicament, health by 0.29%; housing & construction materials by 0.3%; family appliances by 0.34%; drinks & cigarettes by 0.35%. Consumer prices in 3/2009 grew by 11.25% same period in 2008 and by 1.32% against 12/2008. The average consumer price in 1^st Quarter of 2009 rose by 14.47% against in 1^st Quarter of 2008.

d. Transport

Passenger carriage in Quarter I/2009 estimated rising by 6.8% in volume carried and by 4.3% in traffic volume carried against Quarter I/2008, of which, the land-way grew by 7.5% and 8.2%; the river-way by 2.3 % and 1.7%; the sea-way by 3.2% and 5.6%; the rail-way fell by 12.2% and 12%; the airway down by 5.7% and 3.8% respectively.

Cargo transport in Quarter I/2009 estimated falling by 0.1% in volume carried and by 5.2% in traffic volume carried against Quarter I/2008, of which,  the land-way grew by 1.4% and fell by 0.3%; the rail-way fell by 28.1% and  26.5%; the airway down by 4.7% and 11.6%; the river-way by 2.6% and 6.7%; the sea-way by 1.7% and 5.1% respectively;

e. Communication

Newly developed telephone subscribers in Quarter I/2009 estimated at 7.3 millions, growing by 70.5% against Quarter I of last year (one million new subscribers of desk telephone, rose by 47.4%), bringing the total number of telephone subscribers over the country to end of Quarter I/2009 to 86.8 millions. The number of broad-band internet subscribers over the country to end of Quarter I/2009 estimated at 2.3 millions. Total communication net income in Quarter I/2009 estimated at VND 19.8 trillions, rose by 33.3% against same period last year.

f. International visitors to Vietnam

International visitors to Vietnam in Quarter I/2009 estimated reducing by 16.1% against same period last year, of which, visitors coming for tourist & entertaining purposes fell by18.9%; for business purpose by 25.8%; for relating relatives by1%. Visitors coming by air fell by 9.8%; coming by sea by 59.2%; and coming by land by 37.5% against same period in 2008.

The volume of visitors coming from the United States in the three beginning months of 2009 estimated growing by 17.2%; visitors from Australia by 4.8%; from Canada by 11.1% against same period last year. Some countries and territories had a large number of visitors to Vietnam in previous years but now the volume of visitors from those countries and territories reduced compared to same period in 2008: China by 23.6%; South Korea by 25.7%; Japan by 11.7%; and Taiwan by 11.6%.

Tags: Vietnam economic 2009, Vietnam economic statistics, Vietnam's economy situation